000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1552 UTC Tue Feb 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the Pacific coast of Costa Rica near 07N84W to 01N100W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 01N100W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate rain showers are within 30 nm of the axis between 83W and 87W, within 60 nm of axis between 102W and 108W, and within 120 nm north of the axis between 122W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the region will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. These will diminish late in the week as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. A weak pressure pattern will support generally gentle to moderate NW winds elsewhere off Mexico. NW swell will build offshore Baja California Norte by the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A large area of persistent strong easterly trade winds across the southwest Caribbean Sea will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo, and fresh to strong winds elsewhere off the coast of Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca. The combination of gap winds off Nicaragua and Costa Rica is support an area of seas to 11 ft within 500 nm downstream which will subside to below 8 ft by late week. Similarly moderate to fresh northerly gap winds will be active through the Gulf of Panama, mainly near the Azuero peninsula. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 29N120W. A scatterometer pass from a few hours ago indicated a large patch of fresh trade winds south of the high pressure between 10N and 15N. Concurrent altimeter passes showed seas of 8 to 10 ft in this area. West of the high pressure, a weak cold front is entering in the forecast area. This is breaking up the subtropical ridge, resulting in only moderate trade winds elsewhere farther south into the tropics. Strong SW winds are possible just ahead of the front north of 29N, although most of these winds will lift north of the area in the next several hours as the front moves west and weakens. Recent altimeter passes from farther west confirm large NW swell will follow the front. Swell in excess of 8 ft will cover the waters north of 10N west of 125W by Thu. By late Thu into Fri, model guidance indicates developing and deepening low pres west of the area and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of the week. Strong southerly winds and seas building to 12 ft are likely north of 20N west of 130W by early Fri as the low pressure and its associated frontal boundary move to the north of the area. Looking ahead, winds and seas gradually diminish Sat and Sun as the low pressure moves farther north of the region. $$ Christensen