000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Feb 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A tight pres gradient between high pres ridging in Central America and low pres over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to near gale force offshore winds which will briefly increase to minimal gale force in the next few hours. Winds will then pulse to fresh to strong through Wed night, mainly at night. Seas will peak around 11 ft today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on this gale warning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the Pacific coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to 02N91W to 01N100W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 01N100W to 02N118W to 08N136W. Scattered moderate rain showers are within 45 nm of the axis between 100W and 105W, and within 60 nm of the axis between 123W and 129W. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers are from 10N to 14N between 124W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehunatepec: A locally tight pres gradient, combined with surface troughing nearby will support strong winds this morning. Winds will diminish and pulse to fresh to strong through early Wed, then again Wed night and early Thu, before diminishing. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are expected to prevail the next several days, increasing slightly by the end of the week. Seas 3 ft or less will prevail, building to 3 to 4 ft across the central and southern Gulf by the end of the week. Otherwise, a ridge will extend from NW to SE across the open Pacific waters. Mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail, increasing to moderate to fresh by the end of the week into the weekend. NW swells will build offshore of Baja California norte by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds will freshen early today due to increasing winds N of the area in the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. Gulf of Fonseca: Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore through Wed morning. Seas will build to 8 ft downstream of the gulf during the peak winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pres north of the area extends extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pres gradient between the ridging and lower pres near the ITCZ is supporting a belt of moderate to fresh trades from near 10N to 13N between 114W and 134W. Seas over this same area are in the 8 to 9 ft range due to the fresh trades combined with mainly NE swell. Conditions will gradually improve through Wed. A trough extends from 30N135W to 24N140W, with a trailing cold front from 30N138W to 28N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are N of 29N just E of the trough. The cold front will overtake and merge with the trough by tonight, with the merged boundary stalling and dissipating on Thu. Associated NW swell behind the cold front will affect the NW waters through Thu. Looking ahead, model guidance indicates developing and deepening low pres W of the area and S of the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of the week. The low may bring increasing winds and seas to the W central and NW waters into the weekend, but the strength and areal coverage will depend on the exact track and evolution of this feature. $$ Mundell