000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Feb 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A locally tight pres gradient between twin high pres areas, one over SE Mexico W of the Chivela Pass, and the other over central Guatemala, combined with surface troughing in the middle of the two highs from the Bay of Campeche to the Chivela pass, will support minimal gale force winds overnight tonight. Winds will diminish and then pulse to fresh to strong until early Wed, then will pulse to fresh Wed night into early Thu before diminishing further. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: A tight pres gradient between high pres ridging along the spine of Central America and low pres over the SW Caribbean Sea is supporting fresh to near gale force offshore winds which will increase to minimal gale force in the next few hours, persisting through Tue. Winds will then pulse to fresh to near gale force through Wed night, then fresh to strong thereafter, mainly at night. Seas will peak around 12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the Pacific coast of Costa Rica near 09N86W to 02N91W to 01N100W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 01N100W to 02N120W to 04N125W to 10N138W. A second ITCZ is evident to the S of the discussion waters S of 03.4S. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 83W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 95W and 100W, from 02N to 03N between 107W and 110W, and also from 06N to 10N between 127W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehunatepec: Please read the Special Features section for more details about a gale warning. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW to N winds expected to prevail through much of the week, increasing to moderate to locally fresh by the end of the week. Seas of 3 ft or less will prevail, building to 2 to 4 ft across the central and southern Gulf by the end of the week. Otherwise, a ridge will extend from NW to SE across the open Pacific waters. Mainly gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail, increasing to moderate to fresh by the end of the week into the weekend. NW swells will build offshore of Baja California norte by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds will increase to fresh to strong tonight through early Wed due to increasing winds N of the area in the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. Gulf of Fonseca: Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore through Wed morning. Seas will build to 8 ft downstream of the gulf during the peak winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pres of 1020 mb near 26N122W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pres gradient between the ridging and lower pres near the ITCZ is supporting a belt of moderate to fresh trades from near 10N to 13N between 114W and 134W. Seas over this same area are in the 8 to 9 ft range due to the fresh trades combined with mainly NE swell. Conditions will gradually improve through Wed. A trough extends from 30N137W to 25N140W, with a trailing cold front entering the area at 30N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm E of 140W to the N of 24N. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas to 8 ft are N of 28N just E of the trough. The cold front will move SE gradually merging with the trough through mid week as it moves E-SE. The front will then stall and dissipate early on Thu. Associated NW swell will arrive behind the cold front on Tue morning and will continue to affect the waters N of 15N through early Thu. Looking ahead, model guidance indicates developing and deepening low pres W of the area and S of the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of the week. The low may bring increasing winds and seas to the W central and NW waters into the weekend, but the strength and areal coverage will depend on the exact track and evolution of this feature. $$ Lewitsky