000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252152 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge E of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico behind a stationary front will continue to support gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Near gale force winds will then prevail through early Tue when return flow will become establish N of the area, with winds gradually diminishing through the afternoon hours on Tue. Seas will build to up to 13 to during the peak winds. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Strong high pres building N of the area combined with strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will continue to support a significant gap wind event. Strong to near gale force NE winds will increase to gale force offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo later tonight through early in the afternoon on Tue. Strong to near gale force winds will then continue through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night Thu through Sat. Seas during the gap wind event will build to up to 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the Pacific coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 01N99W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 01N99W to 01N110W to 05N130W to 07N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 03.4S95W to 02S119W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is within an area bounded by 20N140W to 18N131W to 10N127W to 05N127W to 10N133W to 12N140W to 20N140W where a mid to upper level trough prevails. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehunatepec: Please read the Special Features section for more details about a gale warning. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW to N winds expected to prevail through the remainder of the week. Seas of 3 ft or less will prevail. Otherwise, a ridge prevails across the Pacific with mainly gentle winds, increasing to NW moderate to fresh Wed night through Fri off the peninsula of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf will increase to fresh to strong tonight due to increasing winds N of the area in the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. Gulf of Fonseca: Offshore winds will increase to fresh to strong tonight, pulsing to fresh to strong mainly during the overnight and early morning hours thereafter through early Thu. Seas will build to 8 ft downstream of the gulf during the peak winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pres of 1023 mb near 28N122W extends a ridge SE to just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pres gradient between the ridging and lower pres near the ITCZ is supporting a belt of moderate to fresh trades from near 10N to 13N between 116W and 133W. Seas over this same area are in the 8 to 9 ft range due to the fresh trades combined with mainly NE swell. Conditions will gradually improve through Wed. A trough, which is the remnants of a cold front extends from 32N137W to 27N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm E of the trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas to 8 ft are N of 28N just E of the trough. A reinforcing cold front just W of 140W will move into the area this evening, gradually merging with the through mid week as it moves E-SE. The front will then stall and dissipate early on Thu. Associated NW swell will arrive behind the cold front on Tue morning and will continue to affect the waters N of 15N through early Thu. Looking ahead, model guidance indicates developing and deepening low pres W of the area and S of the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of the week. The low may bring increasing winds and seas to the W central and NW waters into the weekend, but the strength and areal coverage will depend on the exact track and evolution of this feature. $$ Lewitsky