000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Feb 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge E of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico behind a stationary front will continue to support gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early this afternoon. Near gale force winds will then prevail through early Tue when return flow will become establish N of the area. Strong winds will gradually diminish through the afternoon hours. Seas will build to up to 14 to during the peak winds. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Strong high pres building N of the area combined with strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will continue to support a significant gap wind event. Strong to near gale force NE winds will increase to gale force offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight through early in the afternoon on Tue. Strong to near gale force winds will then continue through Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night Thu through Sat. Seas during the strong gap wind event will build up to 11-12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N86W to 02N97W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 02N97W to 03N125W to 06N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 06S84W to 05S92W to 02S98W to 02S117W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 01S to 04N between 87W and 100W, and from 07S to 04S between 87W and 97W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehunatepec: Please read the Special Features section for more details about a gale warning. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW to N winds expected to prevail through the remainder of the week. Seas of 4 to 6 ft across the central and southern Gulf will subside through Mon, with seas of 3 ft or less elsewhere and otherwise through the week. Otherwise, a ridge prevails across the Pacific with mainly gentle winds, increasing to NW moderate to fresh Wed night through Fri off the peninsula of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf will increase to fresh to strong tonight due to increasing winds N of the area in the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. Gulf of Fonseca: Offshore winds will increase to fresh to strong today, pulsing to fresh to strong mainly during the overnight and early morning hours thereafter through early Thu. Seas will build to 8 ft downstream of the gulf during the peak winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pres of 1022 mb near 27N124W extends a ridge SE to just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pres gradient between the ridging and lower pres near the ITCZ is supporting a belt of moderate to fresh trades from near 09N to 13N between 116W and 133W. Seas over this same area are in the 8 to 9 ft range due to the fresh trades combined with mainly NE swell. Conditions will gradually improve through Tue night. A cold front entering NW forecast waters this morning will support fresh to strong SW winds N of 28N ahead of the front to 137W beginning this afternoon. The front will weaken tonight and become stationary ahead of a second cold front entering the NW forecast waters this evening. The cold front will merge with the stationary front on Tue morning and will continue to move E-SE through Wed night. The front will then stall and dissipate early on Thu. Associated NW swell will arrive behind the cold front on Tue morning and will continue to affect the waters N of 15N through early Thu. Looking ahead, model guidance indicates developing and deepening low pres W of the area and S of the Hawaiian Islands towards the end of the week. The low is expected to enter the NW forecast waters by Thu night with possible gale conditions N of the low center or N of 28N W of 137W. However, fresh to strong winds associated with the low is forecast to affect the waters N of 20N W of 130W. $$ Ramos