000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Feb 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico in the wake of a cold front N of the area is supporting the development of northerly gale force winds offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to increase to up to 40 kt later tonight, then will gradually diminish below gale force by Mon evening. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds will then prevail before diminishing by Tue evening. Seas will build to up to 14 to 16 ft during the peak winds. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Strong high pres building N of the area combined with strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will support a significant gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo will increase to gale force Mon night through Tue with fresh to strong winds thereafter. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Pacific coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 07N85W to 03N98W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 03N98W to 03N120W to 07N140W. No significant convection in the vicinity of the action is noted. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 115W and 123W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehunatepec: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh winds in the central and southern Gulf will diminish by early Mon. Gentle to moderate mainly NW to N winds are expected to prevail thereafter through the remainder of the week. Seas of 4 to 6 ft across the central and southern Gulf will subside through Mon, with seas of 3 ft or less elsewhere and otherwise through the week. Otherwise, a ridge prevails across the open Pacific waters extending southeastward across the offshore waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern will prevail through the week with mainly moderate NW winds, occasionally and locally increasing to fresh. NW swell will build offshore of Baja California norte by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf will increase to fresh to strong Mon night due to increasing winds N of the area in the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. Gulf of Fonseca: Offshore winds will increase to fresh to strong by early Mon, pulsing to fresh to strong mainly during the overnight and early morning hours thereafter through early Thu. Seas will build to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf during the peak winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pres of 1022 mb near 32N125W extends a ridge SE through 22N118W to 13N102W, and also SW to near 27N140W. The pres gradient between the ridging and lower pres in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a belt of moderate to fresh trades from near 09N to 15N between 114W and 136W. Seas over this same area are in the 8 to 10 ft range due to the fresh trades combined with long period NW and southerly swell. These conditions will gradually improve through Tue night. Complex low pres well N to NW of the area will send a cold front SE of 30N140W by late tonight. The front will slow and weaken across the NW waters through the early part of the week, while a secondary boundary moves into the NW portion and merges with the initial boundary through mid week, becoming diffuse through the end of the week. Associated winds and seas will impact the northern waters starting Mon through Tue. An associated set of NW swell will arrive behind the front Tue through Wed night, peaking at around 14 ft near 30N140W. Looking ahead, model guidance indicates developing and deepening low pres W of the area and S of the Hawaiian Islands approaching 140W towards the end of the week. Depending on the evolution of this low, increasing winds and building seas may impact the W central and NW waters by the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky