000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242105 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico in the wake of a cold front N of the area is supporting the development of fresh to strong northerly winds offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this afternoon. Winds will increase to gale force around sunset, peaking at around 40 kt overnight tonight. Winds will diminish below gale force by Mon evening with fresh to near gale force thereafter, diminishing by Tue evening. Seas will build to up to 14 to 16 ft during the peak winds. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Strong high pres building N of the area combined with strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will support a significant gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo will increase to gale force Mon night through Tue with fresh to strong winds thereafter. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both gale warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Pacific coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 03N99W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 03N99W to 03N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 06N between 104W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 09N to 12N between 112W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehunatepec: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh winds in the central and southern Gulf will diminish by early Mon. Gentle to moderate mainly NW to N winds are expected to prevail thereafter through the remainder of the week. Seas of 4 to 6 ft across the central and southern Gulf will subside through Mon, with seas of 3 ft or less elsewhere and otherwise through the week. Otherwise, a ridge prevails across the open Pacific waters extending southeastward across the offshore waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern will prevail through the week with mainly moderate NW winds, occasionally and locally increasing to fresh. NW swell will build offshore of Baja California norte by the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Please read the Special Features section for more details about the gale warning. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf will increase to fresh to strong Mon night due to increasing winds N of the area in the SW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. Gulf of Fonseca: Offshore winds will increase to fresh to strong by early Mon, pulsing to fresh to strong mainly during the overnight and early morning hours thereafter through early Thu. Seas will build to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf during the peak winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pres of 1025 mb near 32N124W extends a ridge SE through 21N116W to 14N106W, and also SW to near 23N140W. The pres gradient between the ridging and lower pres in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a belt of moderate to fresh trades from near 09N To 16N between 113W and 136W. Seas over this same area are in the 8 to 10 ft range due to the fresh trades combined with long period NW swell. These conditions will gradually improve through Tue night. Complex low pres well N to NW of the area will send a cold front SE of 30N140W by late tonight. The front will slow and weaken across the NW waters through the early part of the week, while a secondary boundary moves into the NW portion and merges with the initial boundary through mid week, becoming diffuse through the end of the week. Associated winds and seas will impact the northern waters starting Mon through Tue. An associated set of NW swell will arrive behind the front Tue through Wed night, peaking at around 13 ft near 30N140W. Looking ahead, model guidance indicates developing and deepening low pres W of the area and S of the Hawaiian Islands approaching 140W towards the end of the week. Depending on the evolution of this low, increasing winds and building seas may impact the W central and NW waters by the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky