000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Feb 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning this early in the evening. Strong winds funneling through the Chivela Pass will then increase to gale force tonight around 0000 UTC. Winds are expected to peak to 40 kt around 0300 UTC with seas to 12 ft building to 15 ft. Minimal gale conditions are forecast to persist through late Mon morning with near gale force winds continuing through Tue morning. Strong winds will gradually diminish through Tue afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building N of the area combined with strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will support a strong gap wind event across the Gulf of Papagayo. Strong NE to E winds are forecast to reach near gale force tonight and minimal gale force Mon night into Tue morning. The areal extent of the strong to near gale force winds will cover mainly the region from 07N to 12N E of 93W Mon through Wed. Seas during this period are expected to range between 8 to 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 04N90W to 03N98W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 03N98W to 03N120W to beyond 03N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge prevails across the Pacific waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly moderate northerly winds are noted. The center of high pressure N and NW of the area will weaken this afternoon, thus diminishing the winds to light to gentle and seas to 5 ft. These conditions will prevail through Tue night when winds are expected to increase again to moderate to fresh, continuing through Fri. Gulf of California: NW winds of 20 to 25 kt across the central and southern Gulf of California will diminish to 15-20 kt this afternoon. Light to gentle winds are expected across the entire gulf Mon night through Wed, increasing to NW moderate on Fri. Gulf of Tehunatepec: Please, see Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Please, see Special Features section for details. Gulf of Panama: Due to the presence of strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean, winds will funnel across the Gulf of Panama, and become fresh to locally strong Mon night and Tue night. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. Gulf of Fonseca: A strong to minimal gale force gap wind event is expected across the Gulf of Papagayo Mon night into Tue morning. At this time frame, expect also fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Fonseca, with seas building to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends SE across the northern forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 16N between 113W and 134W. Seas over this area are in the 8 to 10 ft range based on altimeter data. A cold front will enter the NW waters tonight. Mainly fresh S to SW winds are expected ahead of the front with seas to near 8 ft. A new cold front will follow entering the forecast region by Mon evening. This front will usher in another set of long period NW swell, forecast to propagate SE across the NW waters through mid week. Fresh to locally strong westerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front, with seas of up to 13 ft near 30N140W on Tue. $$ NR