000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 UTC Sun Feb 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge building E of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass this afternoon, increasing to gale force this evening. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt tonight, with seas building to up to 14 or 15 ft. Minimal gale conditions are forecast to persist through Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Strong pressure gradient N of area combined with strong trade winds across the central and SW Caribbean will support a strong gap wind event across the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force Mon night into Tue morning, with a large area of NE to E winds in the 20 to 30 kt range extending SW and downwind to beyond 92W by Tue morning. Seas are forecast to build to 8 to 12 ft with this event. Outside the gales, winds of 30 kt are expected offshore the Gulf of Papagayo tonight and Mon, then again Tue night through Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 06N85W to 04N100W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 04N100W to 03N120W to beyond 03N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge prevails across the Pacific waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, extending SE to near Cabo Corrientes. Under the influence of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted. NW swell, with a period of mainly 12 to 14 seconds, continue to support seas of 6 to 9 ft off Baja, which will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by this morning. Mainly gentle to moderate N to NW winds are expected during the forecast period, with seas subsiding to 3 to 4 ft by Tue morning. Gulf of California: The most recent scatterometer pass indicates NW winds of 20 to 25 kt across the Gulf of California S of 29N. These winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient to the south of a high pressure system located over the Great Basin of United States. The high pressure will move eastward today. As a result, winds will diminish to 15-20 kt today and tonight. Gulf of Tehunatepec: Please, see Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Please, see Special Features section for details. Gulf of Panama: Due to the presence of strong trade winds across the SW Caribbean, winds will funnel across the Gulf of Panama, and become fresh to locally strong Mon night and Tue night. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. Gulf of Fonseca: A strong to minimal gale force gap wind event is expected across the Gulf of Papagayo Mon night into Tue morning. At this time frame, expect also fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Fonseca, with seas building to 8 ft downstream of the Gulf. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends SE across the northern forecast waters to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 11N to 15N between 115W and 125W. Seas over this area are in the 8 to 10 ft range based on altimeter data. NW swell continues to propagate across the forecast waters, with sea heights of 8 to 9 ft covering roughly the waters from 10N to 20N W of 112W. This swell event will continue to push southward today before starting to subside. A frontal trough will reach 30N140W tonight. Mainly fresh S to SW winds are expected ahead of the trough with seas to near 8 ft. A cold front will follow the trough, and enter the forecast region by Mon evening. This front will usher in another set of long period NW swell, forecast to propagate SE across the NW waters through mid week. Fresh to locally strong westerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front, with seas of up to 13 ft near 30N140W on Tue. $$ GR