000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232102 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1921 UTC Sat Feb 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge building east of Sierra Madre Oriental this weekend will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass on Sun afternoon, increasing to gale force Sun evening. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt on Sun night, with seas building to up to 14 or 15 ft. Minimal gale conditions are forecast to persist through Mon morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 03N84W to 06N95W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N95W to 02N108W to 06N118W, then resumes from 06N123W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 71W and 86W, and also from 04N to 08N between 93W and 100W. In addition, scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 16N between 107W and 111W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Pacific waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, extending to the region of Jalisco Mexico. Latest scatterometer data show gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the offshore waters N of 15N and variable to gentle winds elsewhere. NW swell with a period of mainly 11 to 13 seconds continue to support seas of 6 to 9 ft off Baja, which will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by early Sun. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds with seas to 7 ft are expected afterwards, continuing through the middle of the week. Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to 20 to 25 kt in the central and southern Gulf of California tonight through Sun morning as the local pressure gradient tightens between the ridge W of Baja California and lower pressure over western Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, with winds greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. The forecast calls for winds reaching 30 kt at night Sun night through Tue night, with building seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh winds are expected to become fresh to strong Mon night and Tue night. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will build to 5 to 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends SE across the northern waters to the outer boundary of the offshore waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 17N between 112W and 140. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 10 ft range. NW swell continues to propagate across the NE waters, particularly N of 17N between roughly 120W and 130W. This swell event will continue to push southward through late tonight before starting to subside. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the far NW corner of the forecast area by Mon night, and then spread SE across the NW waters through mid week. $$ Lewitsky