000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Feb 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge building east of Sierra Madre Oriental this weekend will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds will begin to funnel through the Chivela Pass on Sun morning, increasing to gale force Sun evening. Winds are forecast to peak around 40 kt on Sun night, with seas building to up to 14 or 15 ft. Minimal gale conditions are forecast to persist through Mon night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO Headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 03N85W to 05N94W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N98W to 02N108W to 05N117W, then resumes west of a surface trough near 04N123W and continues along 01N133W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 91W and 103W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Baja California Peninsula offshore forecast waters and extends to the region of Jalisco. Latest scatterometer data show gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the offshores N of 15N and variable to gentle winds elsewhere. NW swell with a period of mainly 11-13 seconds continue to support seas of 8 to 9 ft off Baja, which will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by early Sun. Gentle to moderate N-NW winds with seas to 7 ft are expected afterwards, continuing through the middle of the week. Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt in the central and southern Gulf of California this evening through Sun afternoon as the local pressure gradient tightens between the ridge W of Baja California and lower pressure over western Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo most of the forecast period. Winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. The forecast calls for winds reaching 30 kt at night, with building seas of 8 to 11 ft. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected through Mon, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Winds will increase to 20 kt Mon night through Wed, with seas building to 6 or 7 ft in response to the increasing winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends SE across the northern forecast waters to the offshore waters of Jalisco, Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds from 09N to 15N between 116W and 128W. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 9 ft range. NW swell continues to propagate across the NE waters, particularly N of 20N E of 126W. This swell event will continue to push southward through late tonight before starting to subside. Another set of long period NW swell will reach the far NW corner of the forecast area by Mon night, and then spread SE across the NW waters through mid week. $$ Ramos