000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230233 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Feb 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event is expected to begin Sun, with gale conditions commencing Sun night into early Mon. Winds may peak around 40 kt late Sun night. Seas will build to up to 14 to 16 ft during the peak winds. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N76W to 02N85W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N90W to 04N107W, with low pres near 03.5N109W interrupting the ITCZ, then resumes near 04N112W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 06.5N between 94W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 102W and 105W and also S of 02N between 124W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends from the central California across the central Baja California peninsula to the open Pacific waters near 24.5N116W. Mainly moderate winds prevail over the offshore waters of Baja California as well as the Gulf of California. Large NW swell associated with the front is spreading into the waters off Baja California Norte, with seas peaking near 12 ft. Seas will continue to propagate along the length of the Baja peninsula while slowly subsiding. By Sat morning, seas 8 ft or greater will cover the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas will then subside below 8 ft Sun. Northerly winds will increase to fresh in the central and southern Gulf of California Sat night through Sun afternoon as the local pressure gradient tightens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun, pulsing to strong tonight and Sat night. Winds will then strengthen Sun night through Wed night. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected through Mon with seas less than 5 ft. Winds will increase and pulse to fresh to strong at night Mon night and Tue night, with seas building in response to the increasing winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds from 10N to 20N. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 9 ft range. NW swell is propagating across the waters N of 21N E of 133W. The swell will continue to propagate southward through late tonight before starting to subside. Another set of NW swell will propagate into the NW part of the discussion area Tue, spreading to the E through SE through mid week. $$ Lewitsky