000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222127
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N88W to 
03N110W, then resumes from 01N124W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N to 05N between 97W and 100W, and also S 
of 03N between 123W and 129W.

A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ, extending from 13N115W to 
03N122W. Scattered moderate convection is within an area bounded
by 20N112W to 17N102W to 06N105W to 02N119W to 10N113W to
20N112W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A weakening cold front extends from the central California across
the central Baja California peninsula to the open Pacific waters
near 25N118W. Fresh winds prevail over the offshore waters of 
Baja California Norte as well as the northern and central Gulf 
of California. Large NW swell associated with the front is 
spreading into the waters off Baja California Norte, with seas 
peaking near 14 ft. The fresh to strong winds will diminish this
evening. Seas will continue to propagate along the length of the
Baja peninsula while slowly subsiding. By Sat morning, seas 8 ft
or greater will cover the offshore waters of Baja California. 
Seas will then subside below 8 ft Sun.

Northerly winds will increase to fresh in the central and 
southern Gulf of California Sat night through Sun afternoon as 
the local pressure gradient tightens.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is expected to begin Sun, with gale conditions
possible Sun night into early Mon. Winds may peak around 40 kt
late Sun night. Seas will build to up to 14 to 16 ft during the
peak winds.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Sun, pulsing to strong tonight and Sat night.
Winds will then strengthen Sun night through Wed night.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected 
through Mon with seas less than 5 ft. Winds will increase and 
pulse to fresh to strong at night Mon night and Tue night, with
seas building in response to the increasing winds.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern waters. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of
the ITCZ to around 20N. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 9 ft
range.

NW swell is propagating across the waters N of 22N E of 134W. 
The swell will continue to propagate southward, with seas greater
than 8 ft covering much of the waters N of 20N and E of 130W by 
late tonight before starting to subside. Another set of NW swell 
will propagate into the NW part of the discussion area Tue,
spreading to the E through SE through mid week.

$$
Lewitsky