000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211510
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1500 UTC Thu Feb 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 03N96W to 04N110W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N110W to 03N120W TO 02N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 102W and 
107W, and within an area bounded by 05N120W to 13N110W to 
13N105W to 04N114W to 05N120W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A dissipating cold front has moved into the waters off Baja
California Norte, with fresh to strong winds pushing in behind
the front. Winds west of Baja California will diminish tomorrow.
The front has ushered in a set of NW swell into the waters off
Baja California Norte. The swell will continue to build and
spread southward across the remaining offshore waters of Baja
California. Seas will peak near 13 ft by Fri morning before
starting to subside. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover the length
of the offshore waters off Baja California by Sat morning, before
subsiding below 8 ft Sun. 

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft will
prevail across the northern Gulf of California through Fri 
morning before decreasing.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is expected to begin Sun, with gale conditions
possible Sun night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo will continue through Sun, pulsing to strong Fri night 
and Sat night. Winds will then strengthen Sun night and Mon.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected 
across the Gulf of Panama through Mon with seas less than 5 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern waters. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of
the ITCZ to near 20N. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 9 ft 
range. NW swell has propagated into the northern waters N of 28N
E of 126W. The swell will continue to propagate southward, with
seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters N of 20N and 
E of 130W by late Fri before starting to subside. 

$$
AL