000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210955
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A weak surface trough extends from 08N81W to 02N96W to 04N110W. 
The ITCZ continues from 04N110W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 01S to 04N between 93W and 106W, and from 06N 
to 09N between 111W and 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A ridge prevails west of Baja California to the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Moderate N to NW winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are noted 
across the region. A cold front moving across the waters N of 
Punta Eugenia today will support fresh to strong W to NW winds 
and seas in the range of 9 to 13 ft in long period NW swell. 
Strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte are expected 
to diminish tonight. However, large seas will continue to move 
SE, reaching near Cabo San Lucas Sat before subsiding. Light to 
gentle NW winds with seas to 4 ft will dominate across the 
offshores of Baja during the weekend and early next week.  

Gulf of California: Winds and seas will increase across the 
northern Gulf of California through Fri morning as a cold front 
moves across the area. Expect SW to W winds in the 20 to 30 kt 
range ahead of the front, with fresh N winds behind the front. 
Seas will build to 8 or 9 ft by early Fri. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds will then dominate the gulf waters through Mon.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is expected to begin by Sun afternoon as a ridge 
builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds 
funneling through the isthmus of Tehuantepec will increase to 
gale force on Sun night but decrease to 30 kt Mon morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh winds are forecast across the Gulf of 
Papagayo for most of the forecast period, with strongest winds 
mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will 
build to 9 ft through Mon night.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected 
across the Gulf of Panama through Mon with seas less than 5 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure located well north-northeast of Hawaiian Islands 
will move ENE and weaken during the next 24 hours. The gradient 
between this ridge and broad low pressure NE of Hawaii will 
tighten from 06N to 26N W of 120W. Seas generated by the winds, 
combined with mixed NE and NW swell is resulting in an area of 
seas of 8 to 9 ft covering most of the waters W of 120W. The 
areal extent of these winds and seas will diminish today as the 
gradient relaxes. Long period NW swell associated with a cold 
front moving across Baja California Norte will reach the NE 
waters this morning with seas of 8 to 13 ft, mainly in the area 
N of 20N E of 130W.

$$
Mundell