000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192213 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Feb 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Climatologically, during portions of the months of March and April of each year, a double ITCZ develops across the eastern Pacific basin, with a convergence zone of clouds and convection on either side of the Equator. This pattern has developed in the past week, while no monsoon trough is present E of 140W. Currently, a weak surface trough extends from 10N85W TO 02.5N92W TO 05N108W TO 03.5N112W. The ITCZ in the northern hemisphere extends from 03.5N113W TO 02N130W TO 03N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05.5N between 81W and 87W, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03.5N to 06N between 97W and 110W. An early season well defined second ITCZ is noted south of the Equator and enters the forecast area from 03.4S101W to 00.5S115W. Associated convection is south of the forecast area. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strong persistent ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, extending through 30N130W to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands to near 13N107W. The remnants of a dissipated cold front have swept Se through the full length of the Baja Peninsula to 20N today, with the ridge realigning across the offshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail across the waters west of 108W late this afternoon through Wed before a new cold front begin to approach the area from the north Wed night, and winds back towards the west and northwest and increase to near 20 kt northward of Punta Eugenia. The front will sink into the northern waters on Thu with winds increasing to 20-25 kt behind the front as it becomes stationary across Baja California Norte. Seas across the offshore waters continue to slowly subside this afternoon, and are presently 7-11 ft in NW swell and will gradually subside to 5-8 ft by Wed afternoon before the next cold front and associated swell approach the area from the north. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail across the full length of the Gulf today, with seas of 3-6 ft. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across north portions through Wed as winds shift to the south in advance of the next cold front. Winds will increase again across the northern Gulf Wed night through Fri as this cold front crosses the area. Expect SW to W winds in the 20 to 30 kt range ahead of the front, with mainly fresh N winds behind the front. Seas are forecast to build to near 8 or 9 ft by Thu afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh offshore winds are forecast across the Gulf of Papagayo region throughout the forecast period, increasing to near 25 kt during the overnight and early morning hours each night except Wed night. Seas will build to near 8 ft each early morning due to this enhanced wind flow. Gulf of Panama: Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama, with moderate to fresh winds today and tonight, and seas of 4 to 6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1043 mb high pressure center is located well north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 42N146W, with ridge extending southeastward through 32N133W to well S of the Revillagigedo Islands to near 13N107W. The pressure difference between this ridge and broad low pressure lingering across the Hawaiian Islands area is producing a tight pressure gradient across most of the area from 09N to 24N W of 110W, with strongest winds near 25 kt prevailing from 10N to 24N west of 128W, were seas are 10- 12 ft. Elsewhere seas generated by these winds combined with long period NW swell are resulting in an area of seas of 8 ft or greater covering most of the waters W of 108W. The areal extent of these winds will diminish over the next couple of days as the low north of the Hawaiian Islands moves toward the N. The area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds will persist W of 130W through Thu, with seas slowly subsiding to 8 to 11 ft. $$ Stripling