000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191544
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1247 UTC Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

Climatologically, during portions of the months of March and 
April of each year, a double ITCZ develops across the eastern 
Pacific basin, with a convergence zone of clouds and convection 
on either side of the Equator. This pattern has developed in the
past week, while no monsoon trough is present E of 140W. 

Currently, a weak surface trough is analyzed from 07N77W to 
03N90W to 04N100W to 04N111W. The ITCZ in the northern 
Hemisphere extends from 04N111W to 03N140W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 00 to 03N between 84W and 89W, and within
about 180 nm N of trough between 98W and 110W. An early season 
well defined second ITCZ is noted south of the Equator.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A strong persistent ridge continues to dominate the offshore 
forecast waters west of Baja California, extending beyond the 
Revillagigedo Islands to near 14N110W. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower surface pressure over the SW of 
United States and north-central Mexico will support fresh to 
strong NW-N winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California
through late this morning, with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW swell. 
Seas will subside to 6 to 9 ft by Wed morning, with moderate to 
occasionally fresh NW-N winds prevailing the remainder of the 
work week. Then, mainly fresh W to NW winds, and a new set of 
long period NW swell will arrive early on Thu, building seas of 8
to 11 ft N of Punta Eugenia by late Thu. These marine conditions
will be associated with a cold front moving across the region.

Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds are spreading
across the full length of the Gulf this morning. Seas will build
to 4-7 ft today across central portions, then gradually diminish
by Wed. Winds are forecast to increase again across the northern
Gulf Wed night through Fri as a cold front crosses the area. 
Expect SW to W winds in the 20 to 30 kt range ahead of the front,
with mainly fresh N winds behind the front. Seas are forecast to
build to near 8 or 9 ft by Thu afternoon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds are forecast across the 
Gulf of Papagayo most of the forecast period, mainly during the 
overnight and early morning hours, from the nocturnal drainage 
flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow 
from the SW Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft by Wed.

Gulf of Panama: Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are 
expected across the Gulf of Panama, with moderate to fresh winds 
today and tonight, and seas of 4 to 6 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure located well north-northeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands will meander through Wed. Its ridge axis 
extends southeastward to well S of the Revillagigedo Islands to 
14N110W. The pressure difference between this ridge and broad 
low pressure lingering across the Hawaiian Islands area is 
producing a tight pressure gradient across most of the area from 
10N to 23N W of 130W based on the most recent scatterometer data.
Seas generated by these winds, combined with long period NW 
swell are resulting in an area of seas of 8 ft or greater 
covering most of the waters W of 110W. The areal extent of 
these winds will diminish over the next couple of days as the low
north of the Hawaiian Islands moves toward the N. An area of 
fresh to strong northeast to east winds will persist W of 130W
through Thu, with seas slowly subsiding to 8 to 11 ft.

$$
GR