000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190938 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Feb 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Climatologically, during portions of the months of March and April of each year, a double ITCZ develops across the eastern Pacific basin, with a convergence zone of clouds and convection on either side of the equator. This pattern has developed in the past week, while no monsoon trough is present E of 140W. Currently, a weak surface trough is analyzed from 07N77W to 05N87W to 03N92W to 03N113W. The ITCZ in the northern Hemisphere extends from 03N113W to 03N130W. Isolated showers are noted from 02N to 05N between 1054W and 111W. An early season well defined second ITCZ is noted south of the Equator. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of a dissipated cold front area expected to reach Cabo San Lucas by early Wed morning. A strong persistent ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, extending well south of the Revillagigedo Islands to near 13N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower surface pressure over the SW of United States will support fresh to strong NW-N winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California this morning with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW swell. Winds and seas will diminish significantly Tue afternoon through early Thu. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds are spilling into far N portions of the Gulf behind the front and will spread the full length of the Gulf this morning. Seas will build to 4-7 ft today across central portions, then gradually diminish by Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds are forecast across the Gulf of Papagayo most of the forecast period, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, from the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft by Wed. Gulf of Panama: Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama, with moderate to fresh winds at night tonight, and again Tue night, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure located well north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will meander through Wed. Its ridge axis extends southeastward to well S of the Revillagigedo Islands to 13N110W. The pressure difference between this ridge and broad low pressure lingering across the Hawaiian Islands area is producing a tight pressure gradient across most of the area N of 06N W of 120W, with seas in the range of 9 to 15 ft in N swell. The areal extent of these winds will diminish over the next couple of days as the low north of the Hawaiian Islands moves west. An area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds will persist W of 130W, with seas slowly subside to 8 to 11 ft during the next 48 hours. $$ Mundell