000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Feb 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Climatologically, during portions of the months of March and April of each year, a double ITCZ develops across the eastern Pacific basin, with a convergence zone of clouds and convection on either side of the equator. This pattern has developed in the past week, while no monsoon trough is present E of 140W. Currently, a weak surface trough is analyzed from northwestern Colombia to 03N88W TO 04N97W TO 02.5N103W TO 03N109W TO 02.5N113W. The ITCZ in the northern Hemisphere extends from 02.5N114W TO 02N119W TO 03N129W. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted from 01N to 03N between 85W and 88W, and from 02N to 04.5N between 106W and 112W. An early season and well defined second ITCZ is noted S of the Equator and extends from 05.5S83W to 01.5S113W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03.5S to 07.5S between 87W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the forecast area and extends from 32N110W SW across the northern Gulf of California to 28.5N113W to 26.5N120W TO 28.5N131W. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of up to 15 ft in NW swell follow the front. The front is forecast to dissipate tonight as it moves southeastward across the northern Gulf of California and the central Baja California Peninsula, with the remnants expected to reach Cabo San Lucas and 22N by early Wed morning. A strong and persistent ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, and extends well south of the Revillagigedo Islands to near 13N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower surface pressure over the SW of United States will support fresh to strong NW-N winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California through Tue morning with seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell, before winds and seas begin to diminish significantly Tue afternoon through early Thu. Gulf of California: The cold front moving slowly across the northern Gulf between 29N and 30N this evening will dissipated overnight. Moderate to fresh NW winds are spilling into far N portions of the Gulf behind the front and will spread the full length of the Gulf overnight. Seas will build to 4-7 ft by Tue morning across central portions and then gradually diminish through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds are forecast across the Gulf of Papagayo most of the forecast period, but mainly during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft Tue through Wed. Gulf of Panama: Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama, with moderate to fresh winds at night tonight, and again Tue night, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong 1042 mb high pressure center, located well to the north- northeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 42N146W, will remain in this general location through Wed. The associated ridge axis extends southeastward across the northern forecast waters to well S of the Revillagigedo Islands to near 13N110W. The pressure difference between this ridge and broad low pressure lingering across the Hawaiian Islands area is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across most of the area N of about 06N and W of 120W, where fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail, with seas in the range of 9 to 15 ft in N swell. The aerial extent of these winds will diminish over the next couple of days as the low pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands moves westward. The area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds will persist, but mainly W of 130W. The seas there will slowly subside to around the 8 to 11 ft through the next 48 hours as the current large N swell moving through the area gradually exits SE of the area. $$ Stripling