000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1303 UTC Mon Feb 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Climatologically, during March and April of each year, a double ITCZ is usually present in the Southern Hemisphere on the eastern Pacific basin. Based on this pattern, no monsoon trough is present E of 140W. Currently, a surface trough is analyzed from northwestern Colombia to 07N77W to 05N90W to 05N100W to 01N111W. The ITCZ in the northern Hemisphere extends from 01N111W TO 00N120W to 00N130W to 00N140W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm N of trough between 97W and 111W. An early season and well defined double ITCZ is noted S of the Equator and extends from 06S84W to 02S100W to 04S122W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm N and 90nm S of the ITCZ axis between 85W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the forecast area and extends from 32N114W to 28N120W to 30N131W. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of up to 13 ft in NW swell follow the front, forecast to dissipate later today as it moves across the northern Gulf of California and northern Baja California Peninsula. A strong and persistent ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, and extends to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower surface pressure over the SW of United States will support fresh to strong NW-N winds across the offshore waters W of Baja California through Tue morning with seas of 8 to 11 ft in Nw swell. Gulf of California: A cold front is moving across the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong westerly winds and seas of 8-10 ft are noted just ahead of the front, particularly between 29.5N and 30.5N. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected behind the front today. Fresh northerly wind flow is then expected throughout most of the Gulf on Tue, diminishing to moderate to locally fresh Tue night through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds are forecast across the Gulf of Papagayo most of the forecast period, but mainly during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft Tue through Wed. Gulf of Panama: Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama, with moderate to fresh winds at night tonight, and again Tue night, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong 1041 mb high pressure center, located well to the north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 42N145W, will remain in this general location through Wed. The associated ridge axis extends southeastward across the northern forecast waters to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure difference between this ridge and broad low pressure lingering across the Hawaiian Islands area is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across most of the area N of about 07N and W of 120W, where fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail, with seas in the range of 9 to 13 ft. The aerial extend of these winds will diminish over the next couple of days as the low pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands moves westward. The area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds will persist, but mainly W of 130W. The seas there will slowly subside to around the 8 to 11ft through the next 48 hours as the large swell gradually propagates SE of the area. $$ GR