007 AXPZ20 KNHC 171604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Feb 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia to the coast at 08N78W to 08N87W and to 05N96W, where scatterometer data from last night showed that it continues to 02N110W to 01N120W and to 01N130W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strong ridge extends southeastward across the discussion area, through 32N134W to 27N125W and to near 22N113W. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower surface pressure that is present over the southwestern United States and Mexico is supporting 25 to 30 kt northwest winds within 60 nm of the coast of Baja California, while northwest of 20-25 kt are over the offshore waters of Baja California east of about 120 nm and south to near 23N. Seas associated with these winds are in the range of 10 to 16 ft. As the energy from the northwest swell responsible for these waveheight begins to dissipate on Mon, this will allow for the the large waves to begin to slowly subside through the next few days. The combination of the strong winds and large NW swell will produce very rough and dangerous marine conditions across the open waters through Mon, and generate very large and shifting waves along the coasts. The wind speeds off Baja California will gradually diminish to 15 to 20 kt on Mon, and mainly 10 to 15 kt by late Tue. Waveheight will lower to the range of 8 to 10 ft on Tue. Gulf of California: Strong low pressure and its associated cold front will move across the northern part of the Gulf of California tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds to the northern part of the Gulf of California tonight into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle northeast winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will increase again to the mainly moderate speeds on Mon, and to stronger speeds of fresh to moderate Mon night into Tue. Light and variable winds are expected elsewhere through Tue, except for the Gulf of Panama where moderate northerly winds are expected. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A very strong 1040 mb high pressure center, well to the north- northeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 41N145W, will change little through Tue. Its ridge axis stretches southeastward to tropics to near 22N113W. The pressure difference between this ridge and broad low pressure to the west of the forecast waters is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across the area N of about 08N and W of 110W. Northeast to east winds of 20 to 25 kt are west of a line from 32N139W to 22N131W to 18N121W to 14N128W and to 14N140W. Seas generated by these winds are in the range of 10 to 16 ft. The present overall synoptic pattern will change very little through the next couple of days as low pressure west of the area near 24N155W pulls off to the northwest. The aforementioned strong northeast to east winds will continue, but over a smaller section of the weatern side of the discussion area. The 10 to 16 ft seas there will slowly subside to around the 10 to 11 ft through the next 48 hours as the large swell gradually loses its energy. $$ Aguirre