338 AXPZ20 KNHC 161603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Feb 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POPOCATEPETL VOLCANO at 19.0N 98.6W is in a state of unrest. Volcanic ash may be reaching the surface within 150 nm of the Pacific coast of Mexico between 100W and 105W. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial surface trough extends from 05N77W to 05N86W to 04N93W. The ITCZ extends from 04N93W to 02N110W to 02N122W. A second ITCZ extends from 02S80W to 03S100W to 02S110W to 04S123W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 85W and 101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure anchored by a 1039 mb high NW of the forecast waters extends a ridge axis SE to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and generally lower pressure over the SW CONUS and along Mexico continues to support fresh to strong NW winds off the Baja California coastline with seas ranging between 8 to 10 ft this morning. Long period NW swell of 14-18 seconds will continue to spread SE across the offshores of Baja trough early next week with seas building to 11-15 ft. Strong winds are expected to increase to near gale force within 60 nm off the coast of Baja N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight as a ridge builds NE of the area further tightening the presure gradient in the region. The combination of these strong winds and large NW swell will produce very rough and dangerous marine conditions across the open waters through Mon, and produce very large and shifting waves along the coasts. Winds off Baja will diminish to gentle to moderate on Tue with seas of 8-10 ft. Winds and seas will further subside through Thu morning. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail along the gulf today, increasing to strong S of 26N tonight. A weak cold front will enter the northern gulf waters on Sun night supporting fresh to strong SW to W winds N of 29N through Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish tonight, but resume again Mon increasing to strong at night and continuing through Wed morning. Light and variable winds are expected elsewhere through Thu except for the Gulf of Panama where moderate northerly winds will dominate. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure centered well north of the Hawaiian Islands covers the forecast waters N of 12N. This is producing a tight surface pressure gradient along with lower pressure to the south, which is resulting in fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly W OF 120W. New NW swell moving through this area is generating seas in the 9 to 16 feet being the highest seas N of 20N. This strong ridge will strengthen slightly during the weekend, and remain generally in place, in order to maintain a large area of these strong NE to E winds across W and SW sections of the discussion area. Winds and seas will start to subside on Mon as the low pressure system affecting the Hawaiian islands moves N-NW, thus acting to decrease the pressure gradient in the region. Otherwise, a weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Pac waters by Thu morning. However, only seas to 11 ft in NW swell are expected at this time. $$ Ramos