000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160319
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Feb 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N81W TO 02N100W, then 
transitions to ITCZ continuing on to 02N105W TO 03N112W TO 
00N127W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm 
north and 30 nm south of the trough between 84W and 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A dissipating cold front has swept across north and central 
portions of Baja California Norte and into NW Mexico during the 
past 24 hours and has since dissipated across central portions 
of the Gulf of California. A large and strong ridge is building 
into the region this evening from the NW, and will begin to 
produce strong Nly winds across the offshore waters later 
tonight. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell prevail south of Punta 
Eugenia, while new NW swell arriving north of there is producing 
seas 6-9 ft. 

A reinforcing front will sweep across Southern California and 
the same northern areas as todays front, with this very strong 
and broad high pressure ridge to build from north of Hawaii 
southeastward across the region tonight through the weekend. 
Fresh to strong northwest to north will develop tonight through 
Sat across the offshore waters of Baja and increase to 20-25 kt 
with possible small areas of gale force wind gusts Sat night. 
Large NW swell will also spread into the regional waters with 
this building ridge, raising seas to 8 to 11 ft west of Baja 
California on Sat and to 10 to 16 ft Sat night and Sun. The 
combination of these strong winds and large NW swell will 
produce very rough and dangerous marine conditions across the 
open waters through the weekend, and produce very large and 
shifting waves along the coasts. 

South and east of Las Islas Revillagigedo, gentle to moderate NW 
to W winds will increase to moderate to fresh on Sat through 
Sun, with seas of 4 to 6 ft expected to build to 8 to 10 ft in 
this NW swell. A weak trough is expected to prevail near the 
coast of Manzanillo, allowing for little change in gentle winds 
east of there through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to
the moderate range Sat afternoon and change little through Sun
night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds will remain across the
forecast waters through Mon as a weak anticyclone sets up near 
12N97W on Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure centered well north of the Hawaiian Islands 
is building southeastward across the northern and central 
portions of the area, and into the tropical waters near 12N103W. 
This is producing a tight gradient between remnants of a trough 
along 130W and the building ridge, resulting in strong NE to E 
winds from 08.5 TO 19N W OF 128W, and fresh to strong winds N of 
19N and W of 137W. New NW swell moving through this area is 
generating seas in the 9 to 13 ft range, except 12 to 15 ft N of 
28N and W of 130W. This unusually strong ridge will strengthen 
slightly over the weekend and remain generally in place to 
maintain a large area of these strong NE to E winds across W and 
SW portions of the discussion area. Seas will subside slightly S 
of 22N over the weekend, to 9-11 ft, while the next surge of 
large NW swell moves across the N and NW waters to produce seas 
of 10 to 14 ft this evening building to 12-16 ft by Sat evening 
before subsiding very slowly Sun into Mon.

This pattern is being aided by a deep layered low pressure 
system across Hawaii. Abundant mid and upper-level moisture in 
the form of overcast to broken mid and upper-level clouds 
continues to stream northeastward in the strong jet stream 
originating south of Hawaii, associated with the upper level 
low. Elevated areas of rain and possible thundershowers created 
by this scenario will affect far W portions of the area through 
Sat.

$$
Stripling