000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150946 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Feb 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N82W to 06N87W to 03N97W. The ITCZ continues from 03N97W to 02N101W to 05N140W. No significant showers or thunderstorm activity along the convergence boundary. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1018 mb high pressure center persists west of the Baja California Peninsula near 23N116W, and is producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the local offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia. SW winds have increased offshore Baja California ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas are generally 5-7 ft. Large NW swell is entering the area. A weakening cold front will move across the far northern waters west of Baja California Norte this morning, and reach central Baja and central Gulf of California as it gradually dissipates. Fresh northwest to north winds will build into the area behind the front today. Large NW swell associated with the front will build into the region through tonight, building seas to 7-10 ft W of Baja California. An unusually strong ridge will build SE into the region this weekend, and induce strong northerly winds across all of the offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula, raising seas to 10-16 ft in a mix of NW swell and NNW windwaves. Isolated coastal areas of Baja cold see sustained winds near 30 kt on Sat. Elsewhere, light to gentle mainly northwest to north winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will continue between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through Fri, then increase on Sat to 5-9 ft as large NW swell moves into the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to moderate range through Mon. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds will remain across the forecast waters through Mon as a weak anticyclone sets up near 11N95W on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from near 31N114W to 26N116W to 22N122W then stationary to 21N140W. Strong high pressure NW of the area building behind the front is producing a tight pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the California coast. SE of the front, a trough has developed from 20N123W to 09N140W. An area of strong winds associated with the trough will drift slowly NW during the next 24 hours. NW swell accompanying the dying front will progress SE, reaching along 20N by Sat morning, and gradually diminish. Large NW swell will reach the northwest corner of the discussion area tonight, with a large area of 12 ft seas, and peak seas 16 or 17 ft on Sat. This swell will spread over much of our area, bringing at least 12 ft seas as far south as 10N through Mon. Satellite imagery shows overcast to broken mid and upper-level clouds ahead of a rather extensive upper-level trough extending from the NW United States SW to an upper low just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The pattern will change little this weekend, with cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing to stream NE across the area into California and Baja California. Mundell