000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150336 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Feb 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N75W TO 02N80W. The ITCZ begins from 05N87W TO 01.5N100W TO 01.5N115W TO 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 90W and 97W and between 109W and 118W. Scattered light to moderate convection, mostly aloft, is noted embedded within overcast high clouds from 06.5N to 21N west of 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1018 mb high pressure center persists to the west of the Baja California Peninsula near 23N115W, and is producing light to gentle winds, in an anticyclonic fashion, across the local offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia, while winds have become SW and increased to 15 to 20 kt offshore of Baja California Norte ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas are generally running 4 to 6 ft in NW swell, but have built to 6-7 ft across the far N waters as new NW swell is entering the area. A weakening cold front will move across the far northern waters west of Baja California Norte in the next several hours, and reach central Baja and central portions of the Gulf of California before sunrise Fri as it gradually dissipates. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will build into the area behind the front tonight. Strong NW swell with and just ahead of the front will build into the region tonight through Friday night, building seas 7-10 ft Fri to the west of Baja California Norte before diminishing slightly. An unusually strong ridge will build SE into the region this weekend, all the way to 10N105W and will drive strong northerly winds across all of the offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula, and raise seas again to 10-16 ft in a mix of NW swell and NNW windwaves. Isolated coastal areas of Baja cold see sustained winds to near 30 kt Sat afternoon and evening. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico has weakened and shifted eastward. Winds have become light and variable. Resultant seas have also subsided, and are currently 4- 7 ft. An area of 6 to 8 ft seas from mixed northeast and northwest swell will linger from 05N to 11N between 96W and 105W by this evening before it shrinks in coverage tonight into Fri and subsides further Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle mainly northwest to north winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will continue between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through Fri, then increase on Sat to 5-9 ft as new NW swell moves into the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo, as were noted in a recent Ascat pass, will diminish to mainly moderate speeds Fri through Sat night, to gentle speeds Sun and Sun night, then increase back to moderate speeds on Mon. Elsewhere moderate to fresh or lighter winds will remain across the forecast waters through Mon as a weak anticyclone sets up near 11N95W on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from near 30N117.5W TO 24N124W TO 22N128W then becomeS stationary to 21N140W. Strong high pressure extending from a 1034 mb high well northwest of the area is building in behind the front producing a tight pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure along the California coast. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting a shrinking area of strong NW to W winds N of 29N west of the front to 124W. SE of the front, a trough has developed from 21N123W TO 09.5N140W. An afternoon scatterometer pass depicted strong NE to E winds around 25 kt prevailing within 270 NM N of the trough between 133W and 140W. This area of strong winds will drift slowly NW during the next 24 hours. Altimeter data from earlier today suggest that seas are slowly subsiding, currently at 8 to 14 west of the front. The front will progress eastward, reaching Baja California late this evening with the winds gradually diminishing. The NW swell accompanying the front will progress southeastward, reaching along 20N by Sat morning while gradually diminishing. A more pronounced pulse of NW swell will reach the northwest corner of the discussion area on Fri night, with a large area of 12 ft seas, and peak seas 16 or 17 ft on Sat. This swell will spread over much of our area, bringing at least 12 ft seas as far south as 10N through Mon. Satellite and microwave imagery shows ample deep-layer moisture streaming northeastward from southeast of the Hawaiian Islands to the California coast and Baja California Norte. Conventional satellite imagery shows overcast to broken mid and upper-level clouds ahead of a rather extensive upper-level trough axis extending from the NW United States southwestward to an upper- level low just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The pattern will change little through the upcoming weekend, while cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to stream northeastward across this area and into California and Baja California Norte through late Fri. Stripling