000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142218 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Feb 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N75W TO 02N80W. The ITCZ begins from 05N87W TO 01.5N100W TO 01.5N115W TO 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 90W and 97W and between 109W and 118W. Scattered light to moderate convection, mostly aloft, is noted embedded within overcast high clouds from 06.5N to 21N west of 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1017 mb high pressure center persists to the west of the Baja California Peninsula near 23N114W, and is producing light to gentle winds, in an anticyclonic fashion, across the local offshore waters. Seas are generally running 4 to 6 ft in NW swell, but has just begun to reach 7 ft across the far N waters as new NW swell is entering the area. A weakening cold front will move across the far northern waters west of Baja California Norte tonight, and reach central Baja and central portions of the Gulf of California before sunrise Fri as it gradually dissipates. Fresh SW winds will build across the northernmost waters of Baja through this evening ahead of the front, with moderate to fresh northwest to north winds building in behind the front. Strong NW swell with and just ahead of the front will build into the region tonight through Friday night, building seas 7-10 ft Fri to the west of Baja California Norte before diminishing slightly. An unusually strong ridge will build SE into the region this weekend, all the way to 10N105W and will drive strong northerly winds across all of the offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula, and raise seas again to 10-16 ft in a mix of NW swell and NNW windwaves. Isolated coastal areas of Baja cold see sustained winds to near 30 kt Sat afternoon and evening. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico has weakened and shifted eastward. This has allowed for the earlier tight gradient over southeastern Mexico to slacken, and northerly winds have diminished to 20 kt or less. Winds will continue to diminish this evening and become variable on Fri. Resultant seas have also subsided, and are currently 4-7 ft. An area of 6 to 8 ft seas from mixed northeast and northwest swell will linger from 05N to 11N between 96W and 105W by this evening before it shrinks in coverage tonight into Fri and subsides further Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle mainly northwest to north winds and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will continue between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through Fri, then increase on Sat to 5-9 ft as new NW swell moves into the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo, as were noted in a recent Ascat pass, will diminish to mainly moderate speeds Fri through Sat night, to gentle speeds Sun and Sun night, then increase back to moderate speeds on Mon. Elsewhere moderate to fresh or lighter winds will remain across the forecast waters through Mon as a weak anticyclone sets up near 11N95W on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from near 30N120W TO 21N132W then become stationary to 21N140W. Strong high pressure extending from a 1036 mb high well northwest of the area, is building in behind the front. A tight pressure gradient prevails west of the front between the building ridge and low pressure along the California coast. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting strong NW to W winds N of 29N west of the front to 131W. SE of the front, a trough has developed from 21N124W TO 12N135W TO 11N140W. An 1800 UTC scatterometer pass depicted strong NE to E winds around 25 kt prevailing within 270 NM N of the trough between 133W and 140W. This area of strong winds will drift slowly NW during the next 24 hours. Altimeter data from earlier today suggest that seas are slowly subsiding, currently at 9 to 14 west of the front. The front will progress eastward, reaching Baja California late today with the winds gradually diminishing. With the wind forcing relaxing, the NW swell will continue to progress southeastward, but gradually diminish. A more pronounced set of northwest swell will reach the northwest corner of the discussion area on Fri night, with a large area of 12 ft seas peaking near 16 or 17 ft on Sat. This swell will spread over much of our area, bringing at least 12 ft seas as far south as 10N through Mon. Total precipitable water imagery shows ample deep-layer moisture streaming northeastward from southeast of the Hawaiian Islands to the California coast and extreme Baja California Norte. Conventional satellite imagery suggests that this moisture is mostly in the form of overcast to broken mid and upper-level clouds as it continues to advect moist southwesterly flow located ahead of a rather extensive upper-level trough axis extending from the NW United States southwestward to an upper- level low just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The low is drifting southward. Areas of elevated showers and thunderstorms with patchy light to moderate rain is embedded within these clouds, and expected to last through Fri before it shifts entirely inland across California. Stripling