000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 806 UTC Tue Feb 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico early today. The front will shift across the western Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Bay of Campeche Tue night. Winds will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, inducing the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Gale conditions are expected to begin late tonight, and continue through Wed night before diminishing below gale force. Winds will further diminish to 20 kt or less Thu. Seas associated with this upcoming event are expected to peak near 18 or 19 ft on Wed. Eastern North Pacific Gale Warning: High pressure of 1023 mb centered N of the area near 31N121W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a 997 mb low pressure system located W of area near 26N147W is supporting strong to near gale force southerly winds over much of the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 130W. The low pressure center will approach the forecast waters today while continuing to deepen. This will tighten the pressure gradient, helping for gale force winds to develop today N of 22N between 130W and 135W, and spreading slowly eastward through the evening. The low will clip the far NW waters tonight, with associated cold front ushering in a brief period of gale force winds on either side of the front overnight. The area of high pressure will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours, helping loosen the pressure enough for winds to diminish below gale force by Wed morning. The cold front will usher in a fresh set of NW swell, with seas peaking near 18 ft late tonight into early Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N87W. The ITCZ continues from 05N87W to 02N98W to 03N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm either side of the ITCZ between 90W and 97W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the upcoming gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail over most of the Gulf before diminishing to 20 kt or less by late today. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California Peninsula, producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell. Winds will diminish to light and variable later today. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will prevail between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the Gulf of Panama the next several days. Light to gentle breezes will persist elsewhere through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see above for more on the upcoming gale force winds over portions of the discussion waters N of 20N and W of 125W. Elsewhere, long period NW swell continues across the forecast waters, mixing with long period cross equatorial SW swell. Seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the waters W of 115W, with another area of 8 to 9 ft seas covering much of the waters S of 10N between 100W and 115W today before areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft decreases. $$ AL