000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120319 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 034 UTC Tue Feb 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Tue. The front will shift across the western Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Bay of Campeche Tue night. Winds will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, inducing the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Gale conditions are expected from Tue night through Wed night. Seas associated with this upcoming event are expected to peak near 18 or 19 ft on Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N87W. The ITCZ continues from 05N87W to 03N110W to 03N130W to beyond 08N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 111W and 116W. Similar convection is within 30 nm either side of the ITCZ between 90W and 94W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Another gap wind event is expected to start in the Tehuantepec region by Tuesday night. A Gale Warning is in effect. Please see the Special Features section above for more details on this upcoming event. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong NW to N winds will dominate most of the Gulf tonight. These winds will persist through Tue morning, then will begin to diminish to 20 kt or less by late Tue. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California Peninsula, producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell. Winds will diminish to light and variable by late Tue. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will prevail between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night into Fri morning. Winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds, and seas to 8 ft are expected across the Gulf of Panama tonight, then will diminish to moderate to fresh for the remainder of the forecast period. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system located W of area will support strong to near gale force SE to S winds over much of the forecast waters N of 16N and W of 130W by tonight, and N of 18N between 123W and 135W by Tue night. A cold front will be near 30N140W by Tue evening, and extend from 30N138W to beyond 28N140W. Strong winds and high seas are expected on either side of the front, forecast to move across the NW corner of the discussion area through at least Wed evening. Another set of long period NW swell will follow the front building seas up to 17 or 18 ft near 30N140W on Wed. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters over the next couple of days, mixing with long period cross equatorial SW swell. Seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the waters W of 115W through Tue, with another area of 8 to 9 ft seas covering much of the waters S of 10N between 100W and 115W. $$ GR