000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1954 UTC Mon Feb 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Tue morning. The front will shift across the western Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Bay of Campeche Tue night. Winds will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, inducing the next gale force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Gale force winds over the Tehuantepec are likely from Tuesday night through Wed night. Seas associated with this upcoming event are expected to peak near 17 ft on Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N85W. The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 03N105W to 03N130W to beyond 08N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 111W and 116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Another gap wind event is expected to start in the Tehuantepec region by Tuesday night. Please see the Special Features section above for more on this upcoming event. Gulf of California: The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong winds across the central Gulf. By tonight, fresh to strong NW to N winds will dominate most of the Gulf. These winds will persist through Tue morning, then will begin to diminish to 20 kt or less by late Tue. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California Peninsula, producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds, with seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell. Winds will diminish to light and variable by late Tue. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will prevail between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds, and seas to 8 ft are expected across the Gulf of Panama tonight, then will diminish to moderate to fresh for the remainder of the forecast period. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system located W of area will support strong to near gale force SE to S winds over much of the forecast waters N of 16N and W of 128W by tonight, and N of 22N between 120W and 132W by Tue night. The low pressure is forecast to clip the NW corner of the forecast area by early Wed afternoon. The duration and fetch of winds in this area will maintain seas between 12 and 15 feet through Tue. Seas of 16 to 20 ft are expected near 30N140W, in the NW quadrant of the low center. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters over the next couple of days, mixing with long period cross equatorial SW swell, and swell generating by the recent gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. Seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the waters W of 115W through Tue, with another area of 8 to 9 ft seas covering much of the waters S of 10N between 100W and 115W. $$ GR