000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Feb 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Tuesday morning. The front will shift across the western Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday night. The winds will funnel through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, inducing the next gale-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Gale-force winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The sea heights associated with this upcoming event are expected to peak near 17 feet on Wednesday from 13N to 14.5N between 95W and 96W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough passes through the coastal sections of Colombia near 06N77W, to 03N82W to 03N85W. The ITCZ continues from 03N85W to 04N90W to 03N100W to 03N113W to 03N131W beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 96W and 102W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 30 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 108W and 117W, and within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ from 128W westward. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds continue to diminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with fresh to strong winds. The wind speeds will continue to diminish, to 20 knots or less by later today. Another gap wind event is expected to start on Tuesday night. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt in the northern part of the Gulf today, as a weak cold front moves across the area. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds across parts of the central and southern Gulf by late today. These wind speeds will diminish to 20 knots or less by late Tuesday morning. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California Peninsula, producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Punta Eugenia, and gentle to moderate winds from Cabo San Lucas to Punta Eugenia, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell. A cold front moving across the waters N of Punta Eugenia today will bring sea heights of 8 to 11 feet. The wind speeds will diminish to light and variable by late Tuesday. Light to gentle breezes and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will prevail elsewhere between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to less than 20 knots, from this afternoon to tonight. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will be present : from tonight until Tuesday afternoon, from Wednesday night until Thursday morning, and from Thursday night until Friday afternoon. Sea heights of 8 feet will be present from Thursday morning until Thursday afternoon. Fresh to locally strong NE Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds, and seas to 8 ft are expected across the Gulf of Panama today, then will diminish to moderate to fresh for the remainder of the forecast period. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere through Friday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient, between the ridge and a low pressure center that is located W of area, will support strong to near gale force SE to S winds across much of the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 130W by late Monday, and N of 18N W of 125W by late Tuesday. The low pressure center is forecast to move NE, with the associated cold front entering the far NW corner of the forecast region on Wednesday. The duration and fetch of winds in this area will maintain sea heights from 12 feet to 15 feet through Tuesday. Sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet will follow the front by Wednesday morning. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters during the next couple of days. The swell will mix with long period cross equatorial SW swell, and the swell that is being generated by the recent gap wind events in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and in the Gulf of Papagayo. Sea heights of 8 feet or greater will dominate most of the waters W of 115W through Tuesday. Another area of sea heights, from 8 feet to 9 feet, will cover much of the waters S of 10N between 90W and 115W. $$ mt