000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110904 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 806 UTC Mon Feb 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Tue morning. The front will shift across the western Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Bay of Campeche Tue night. Winds will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, inducing the next gale force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. Gale force winds over the Tehuantepec are likely from Tuesday night through Wed night. Seas associated with this upcoming event are expected to peak near 17 ft on Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N81W to 04N85W. The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 04N90W to 02N101W to 03N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 95W and 99W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds continue to diminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with fresh to strong winds noted overnight. Winds will further diminish to 20 knots or less by late this morning. Another gap wind event is expected to start Tuesday night. Please see the special features section above for more on this upcoming event. Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt across the northern part of the Gulf today as a weak cold front moves across the area. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds across parts of the central and southern Gulf by late today. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by late Tue morning. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California Peninsula, producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Punta Eugenia, and gentle to moderate winds from Cabo San Lucas to Punta Eugenia, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell. A cold front moving across the waters N of Punta Eugenia today will bring seas of 8 to 11 ft. Winds will diminish to light and variable by late Tue. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will prevail between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds, and seas to 8 ft are expected across the Gulf of Panama today, then will diminish to moderate to fresh for the remainder of the forecast period. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system located W of area will support strong to near gale force SE to S winds over the much of the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 130W by late Mon, and N of 18N W of 125W by late Tue. The low pressure is forecast to move NE with the associated cold front entering the far NW corner of the forecast region Wed. The duration and fetch of winds in this area will maintain seas between 12 and 15 feet through Tue. Seas of 12 to 18 ft will follow the front by Wed morning. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters over the next couple of days, mixing with long period cross equatorial SW swell, and swell generating by the recent gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. Seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the waters W of 115W through Tue, with another area of 8 to 9 ft seas covering much of the waters S of 10N between 90W and 115W. $$ AL