000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110314 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 028 UTC Mon Feb 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure over Colombia near 09N74W to 04N80W to 03N85W. The ITCZ continues from 03N85W to 02N110W to 03N130W to beyond 09N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt across the northern part of the Gulf late tonight into Mon as a weak cold front moves across the area. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds across parts of the central and southern Gulf by late Mon. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by late Tue morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: A ridge along the E slopes of Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico is weakening. This is helping to loosen the pressure gradient across the Isthmus of Tehunatepec and to diminish the winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As a result, winds have diminished to 20 to 30 kt early this evening, and will further diminish to 20 knots or less by late Monday morning. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as another cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are possible Tue night through Wed night. Currently, marine guidance suggests increasing winds of 35-40 kt and building seas of 12-17 ft on Wed. A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California Peninsula, producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Punta Eugenia, and gentle to moderate winds from Cabo San Lucas to Punta Eugenia, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell. A cold front moving across the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Mon will bring seas of 8 to 11 ft. Winds will turn light and variable by late Tue as the pressure gradient strengthens W of 120W due to the presence of a large low pressure system. Light to gentle breezes and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will prevail between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Thursday night, with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. The winds will be greatest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds, and seas to 8 ft are expected across the Gulf of Panama and downwind to near 5N tonight and Mon, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 18N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system located W of area will support strong to near gale force SE to S winds over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 130W by late Mon, and N of 18N W of 125W by late Tue. The low pressure is forecast to move NE with the associated cold front entering the far NW corner of the forecast region around Wed at 0000 UTC. The duration and fetch of winds in this area will maintain seas between 12 and 15 feet through Tue. Seas of 12 to 18 ft will follow the front by Wed morning. Long period NW swell will continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters over the next couple of days, mixing with long period cross equatorial SW swell, and swell generating by the recent gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. Seas of 8 ft or greater will dominate most of the waters W of 120W through Tue, with another area of 8 to 9 ft seas roughly covering the waters from 02N to 14N between 90W and 120W. $$ GR