000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090902 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 UTC Sat Feb 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event: High pressure along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico has helped tighten the pressure gradient across the region. The overnight ASCAT pass indicates gale force winds to 40 kt prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The area of high pressure will start to weaken Sunday, which will help loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will diminish below gale force by Sun evening, then diminish further to 20 kt or less Mon. Seas resulting from this gap wind event will peak near 17 ft today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 03N89W. The ITCZ continues from 03N89W to 02N104W to 04N114W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm either side of the ITCZ W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the ongoing gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, the overnight ASCAT pass indicated gentle to moderate NW to N winds along the coast of Baja California. The gentle to moderate winds are expected to continue over this area through Mon night. Winds to diminished to mainly moderate to fresh across the Gulf of California. Winds will further diminish and become light to gentle today through the remainder of the weekend. Elsewhere light to gentle breezes and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will prevail between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: The pressure gradient between high pres across the eastern United States and the equatorial trough is supporting strong to near gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. The area high pressure will weaken and shift E early next week, which will help to diminish winds across the Papagayo region. Highest seas will build to near 11 ft during the time of peak winds. The area of 8 ft seas propagating SW from the Gulf of Papagayo will merge with the area of seas propagating downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec by this afternoon and create an area of 8 ft seas generally located from 02N to 14N between 90W and 110W. Long period SW and NW swell will also contribute to combined seas in this area. Gulf of Panama: A similar gap wind scenario can be expected across the Gulf of Panama, with strong winds pulsing to near gale force during the overnight hours this weekend. Winds will diminish early next week. Seas will build to near 11 ft downstream from the Gulf of Panama over the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure over the northern portion of the discussion waters, and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining an area of moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 1005 mb low pressure centered west of the area near 27N150W is supporting strong to near gale winds over the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 135W. These enhanced winds will linger over this area until Mon. The duration and fetch of winds over this area will help seas build to between 14 and 16 ft near 30N140W today through Mon. $$ AL