000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2000 UTC Fri Feb 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event: A cold front is moving S into the Bay of Campeche. High pressure building south along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico in the wake of the cold front will help tighten the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region. Winds strengthened this morning and have just increased to minimum gale force. The current event is expected to peak with strong gale force winds Sat night and Sun, then high pressure will start to weaken. This will loosen the pressure gradient across Tehuantepec, which will allow winds across Tehuantepec to diminish below gale force around midday Sunday, then diminish further to 20 kt or less Mon. Seas resulting from this gap wind event will peak near 17 ft Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N75W to 02N83W to 02N106W. The ITCZ continues from 02N106W to 02N109W to 01N113W to 06N124W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of a line from 06N120W to 09N125W to 04N134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 32N133W SE to through the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough along the eastern shore of the Gulf of California will maintain moderate NW to N winds along the coast of Baja California through Mon night. High pressure over the Great Basin region of the United States will maintain strong NW winds across the Gulf of California today. The area of high pressure across the Great Basin region will weaken and shift eastward, allowing winds to diminish across the Gulf of California this evening. Elsewhere light to gentle breezes and seas in the 4 to 6 ft range will prevail between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the eastern United States and the equatorial trough will tighten today. This will help generate strong gap winds across Papagayo, which will pulse to near gale force during the overnight hours tonight through Sun night. The area of high pressure will weaken early next week, which will help to diminish winds across the Papagayo region. Highest seas will build to near 11 ft during the time of peak winds. Gulf of Panama: A similar scenario can be expected across the Gulf of Panama, with strong winds pulsing to near gale force during the overnight hours through this weekend. Winds will diminish early next week. Seas will build to near 10 ft downstream from the Gulf of Panama over the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure aligned from E to W along 29N, and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining an area of fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. Fresh to strong winds also prevail N of 21N and W of 137W due to a tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure ridge and a deepening low pressure center NNE of Hawaii near 27N153W. The surface low N of Hawaii will track E, then NE towards the forecast waters this weekend, tightening the pressure gradient over the waters N of 20N and west of 130W. This will increase winds to near gale force over this area by early Sat. Enhanced winds will linger over this area through early next week before the low weakens. The continued enhanced winds over this area will help for seas to build to 15 ft near 30N140W Sat through Mon. $$ CAM