000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080301
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
052 UTC Fri Feb 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

A significant gap wind event will commence Fri, then continue 
through Sun evening over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in response to 
strong high pressure building south along the Sierra Madre 
Oriental mountains of Mexico behind a cold front moving across 
the Gulf of Mexico. Gap winds are expected to peak near 45 kt 
with seas topping out between 17 and 20 ft Fri night and Sat 
morning. A large area of merged 8 ft seas will develop downstream
from the Gulfs of Papagayo and Tehuantepec between 02N and 16N 
to beyond 120W by Sat night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pres 1007 mb over NW Colombia
near 09N74W to 02N78W to 00N84W. The surface trough resumes near
09N84W then curves W to 04N95W to 04N105W. The ITCZ continues 
from 04N105W to 05N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 04N to 10N between 112W and 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

High pres measuring 1025 mb centered near 31N126W ridges SE to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The high will generally maintain
moderate NW to N winds along the coast of Baja California 
through Mon night. Strong NW winds will affect the Gulf of 
California tonight and Fri in response to high pressure over the
Great Basin. These winds will diminish by Fri evening as the 
high moves eastward and weakens.

Elsewhere light to gentle breezes and slight seas will persist
between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the
forecast period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: High pressure over the western Caribbean will 
maintain strong to near gale force winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Mon, then winds will decrease to strong. 
Strongest winds will be during the late night and early morning 
hours. Highest seas will build to between 10 and 11 ft during the
time of peak winds.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE winds will affect the 
Gulf of Panama through Sun night, with sea heights building to 
9 to 11 ft downstream from the Gulf of Panama over the weekend.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Moderate to fresh NE winds will generally prevail N of 06N and W
of 115W. Long period NW swell is producing seas between 8 and 13
for almost all of the discussion area N of 04N and W of 110W. 
Winds west of 130W between 07N and 20N have become strong as the 
pressure gradient tightens between a high to the north and a 
developing low pressure system NE of Hawaii. Strong SE winds will
also develop N of 20N over the far western waters Fri night as a
developing low tracks NE from N of the Hawaiian Islands toward 
30N140W. Fresh to strong SE winds will spread eastward across the
NW forecast waters Fri through Mon as the low deepens. Model 
guidance remains in good agreement in keeping gale force winds on
the NE side of the low W of 140W as the low is expected to loop 
back SW toward the Hawaiian Islands Sat and Sun. Seas near 
30N140W could build as high as 15 ft this weekend.

$$
CAM