000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071518 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1517 UTC Thu Feb 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A significant Tehuantepec gap wind event will commence Fri, then continue through Sun evening over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in response to strong high pressure building south along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Gap winds are expected to be 45 kt by Fri night with maximum seas peaking between 17 and 20 ft Fri night and Sat morning. A large area of 8 ft seas will develop downstream from the Gulfs of Papagayo and Tehuantepec between 02N and 16N to beyond 120W by Sat night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 03N80W to 03N105W. The ITCZ continues from 03N105W to 04N110W to 06N116W to 04N140W. There are no significant heavy showers or thunderstorm activity along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to locally strong NW winds along the coast of Baja California Sur and off the coast of Los Cabos in the southern Gulf of California. These winds are between a trough over central Mexico and high pressure over the northeast Pacific. While these winds will diminish today, NW winds across the Gulf of California will increase as high pressure builds over the Great Basin north of the area. These winds will diminish through Fri as the high pressure continues to move eastward. Gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas will prevail thereafter across the Mexican offshore waters north of 20N into early next week. Elsewhere light to gentle breezes and slight seas will persist between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: High pressure over the western Caribbean will cause winds over the Gulf of Papagayo to become strong to near gale force through Mon night. Strongest winds will be during the late night and early morning hours. Highest seas will build to 10-11 ft during the time of peak winds. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE winds will affect the Gulf of Panama through Sun night, with sea heights building to 9-11 ft downstream from the Gulf of Panama over the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate NE winds prevail N of 06N and W of 120W. Long period NW swell is producing seas between 8 and 12 ft N of 20N. Winds west of 130W will intensify as the pressure gradient tightens between a high to the north and a developing low pressure system northeast of Hawaii will support strong SE winds N of 20N in the far western waters Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will spread eastward across the NW forecast waters Fri through Mon as the low deepens then meanders west of 140W through Sun. Seas in the NW forecast waters could reach 14-15 ft this weekend. $$ Christensen