000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

A significant Tehuantepec gap wind event will commence Fri, then 
continue through Sun evening over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 
response to strong high pressure building S along the Sierra 
Madre Oriental mountains behind a cold front moving across the 
Gulf of Mexico. Gap winds are expected to be 45 kt by Fri night 
with maximum seas peaking between 17 and 20 ft Fri night and Sat 
morning. A large area of 8 ft seas will develop downstream from 
the Gulfs of Papagayo and Tehuantepec between 02N and 16N to 
beyond 120W by Sat night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N87W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N87W to 04N110W to 06N116W to 04N140W. There 
are no significant heavy showers or thunderstorm activity along 
the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

Seas will gradually subside today as the NW swell affecting the 
coastal waters of Mexico decays.

A strong ridge over the Great Basin will induce fresh to strong 
NW winds over the central and southern Gulf of California this 
morning through Fri evening. Seas are expected to build to near 
8 ft in the southern gulf by Fri. 

A large area of 8 ft seas will develop well to the west of the 
Gulfs of Papagayo and Tehuantepec Fri and Sat, then merge with a 
large area of mixed NE and NW swell beyond the offshore waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: High pressure over the western Caribbean will 
cause winds over the Gulf of Papagayo to become strong to near 
gale force through Mon night. Strongest winds will be during the 
late night and early morning hours. Highest seas will build to 
10-11 ft during the time of peak winds. 

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE winds will affect the 
Gulf of Panama through Sun night, with sea heights building to 
9-11 ft downstream from the Gulf of Panama over the weekend.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Moderate NE winds prevail N of 06N and W of 120W. Long period NW 
swell is producing seas between 8 and 12 ft N of 20N. Winds west 
of 130W will intensify as the pressure gradient tightens between 
a high to the north and a developing low pressure system NE of 
Hawaii will support strong SE winds N of 20N in the far western 
waters Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds will spread eastward 
across the NW forecast waters Fri through Mon as the low deepens 
then meanders west of 140W through Sun. Seas in the NW forecast 
waters could reach 14-15 ft this weekend. 

$$
Mundell