000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2051 UTC Wed Feb 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pres 1010 mb near 05N74W to
02N79W to 02N83W. The ITCZ extends from 04N87W to 03N96W to 
05N110W to 04N121W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is present from 02N to 04N between 100W and 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

NW swell will continue to support seas of 8-12 ft in waters off 
Baja California Norte N of 26N through this evening and 8-10 ft 
seas across Baja California Sur offshores and the Revillagigedo 
Islands through Thu afternoon. Afterwards, seas to 9 ft will 
continue to travel SE to the offshores of Jalisco, Mexico where 
seas will subside below 8 ft on Fri afternoon. 

A ridge will build over the Great Basin on Thu morning and will 
induce strong NW winds in much of the central and southern Gulf 
of California Thu through Fri evening. Seas are expected to 
build to 8 ft across the southern gulf on Fri. 

A strong gap wind event will commence Fri over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec in response to strong high pressure building behind a
cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. Gap winds 
will reach gale force by Fri evening with downstream seas peaking
to 18 ft Sat morning. Gale force winds to 40 kt will prevail 
through late morning on Sun. Otherwise, a large area of 8 ft seas
will develop westward from the Gulfs of Papagayo and Tehuantepec
between 02N and 16N to beyond 120W by Sat morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: High pres over the western Caribbean will cause 
winds over the Gulf of Papagayo to increase to near gale force 
during the overnight and early morning hours through Mon night. 
Seas will build to 11 ft during the peak winds. 

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE winds will affect the 
Gulf of Panama through Sun night with sea heights building to 11 
ft over the weekend.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Moderate NE winds prevail N of 06N and W of 120W. Long period NW
swell are causing seas to build to between 8 and 13 ft N of 20N.
Winds in this area W of 130W have become strong as the pressure 
gradient tightens due to a developing low pressure system N of 
Hawaii. Strong winds S of 15N and W of 120 will continue through 
Thu night as the low moves NE to near 26N153W by Fri morning. 
Fresh to strong SE winds will then begin across the NW forecast 
waters on Fri continuing through Mon as the low deepens and 
continue to move N and then SW towards the end of the weekend. 
Seas across the NW forecast waters are expected to build to 15 ft
over the weekend. 

$$
CAM