000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 03N77W to 03N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N90W to 03N100W to 05N110W to 03N125W to 
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N 
between 88W and 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A dissipating stationary front extending from 30N112W TO 27N114W 
TO 22N124W supports fresh to strong W to NW winds in the 
northern Gulf of California. These winds will diminish early 
this afternoon as the front dissipates. However, NW swell 
associated with the front will continue to support seas of 8-12 
ft in waters off Baja California Norte N of 26N through this 
evening and 8-10 ft seas across Baja California Sur offshores 
and the Revillagigedo Islands through Thu afternoon. Afterwards, 
seas to 9 ft will continue to travel SE to the offshores of 
Jalisco, Mexico where seas will subside below 8 ft on Fri 
afternoon. 

A ridge will build over the Great Basin on Thu morning and will 
induce strong NW winds in much of the central and southern Gulf 
of California Thu through Fri evening. Seas are expected to 
build to 8 ft across the southern gulf on Fri. 

A strong gap winds event will commence Fri over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec in response to strong high pressure building behind 
a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. Gap winds 
will reach gale force by Fri evening with downstream seas 
peaking to 18 ft Sat morning. Gale force winds to 40 kt will 
prevail through late morning on Sun. Otherwise, a large area of 
8 ft seas will develop westward from the Gulfs of Papagayo and 
Tehuantepec between 02N and 16N to beyond 120W by Sat morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: High pres over the western Caribbean will cause 
winds over the Gulf of Papagayo to increase to near gale force 
during the overnight and early morning hours through Mon night. 
Seas will build to 11 ft during the peak winds. 

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE winds will affect the 
Gulf of Panama through Sun night with sea heights building to 11 
ft over the weekend.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Moderate N-NE winds prevail N of 15N and behind a dissipating 
stationary front reaching from 27N114W TO 22N124W. Long period 
NW swell follows this front with building seas to 13 ft north of 
27N. The front will dissipate this afternoon. South of 15N and W 
of 120W, the pressure gradient between a ridge to the north and 
lower pressure of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh winds with 
seas to 9 ft. Winds in this area will increase to strong early 
on Thu as the pressure gradient tightens due to a developing low 
pressure system N of Hawaii. Strong winds S of 15N and W of 120 
will continue through Thu night as the low moves NE to near 
26N153W by Fri morning. Fresh to strong SE winds will then begin 
across the NW forecast waters on Fri continuing through Mon as 
the low deepens and continue to move N and then SW towards the 
end of the weekend. Seas across the NW forecast waters are 
expected to build to 15 ft over the weekend. 

$$
Ramos