000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2056 UTC Tue Feb 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from a 1007 mb low centered over NW Colombia near 06N76W to 03N81W to 04N83W. The ITCZ continues from 04N83W to 05N85W to 03N115W to 04N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 06N between 106W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front curves W from the northern tip of the Gulf of California to the W coast of Baja California Norte near 30N116W to 26N122W to 24N132W to 25N140W. NW swell generated N of this front are supporting seas of 7 to 8 ft southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 8 to 13 ft behind this front will affect the waters off Baja California Norte through Wed evening while seas in the range of 8 to 11 ft will prevail in the offshores of Baja California Sur through Thu, subsiding to less than 8 ft on Fri morning as NW swell decay. For the Gulf of California, the cold front will support strong SW winds over the waters N of 29.5N. Strong winds N of 30N will become W of SW as the weakening front heads SE to near 28.5N. Strong winds will subside by Wed evening as the cold front weakens/moves E across northern Mexico. A ridge will start to build over central California on Wed morning, thus supporting NW strong to near gale force winds N of 29.5N. A new ridge will build over the Great Basin by Thu and induce strong NW winds in much of the central and southern Gulf Thu and Fri. Farther south, along the offshores between Jalisco and Oaxaca, Mexico gentle NW flow and slight to moderate seas persist and are forecast to continue through early in the weekend. Looking ahead, strong gap winds will commence Fri morning in Gulf of Tehuantepec in response to high pressure building behind a cold front moving into southern Mexico. Gap winds may reach strong gale force by Fri night with downstream seas building to 17-19 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate pressure gradient over the western Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong NE winds in this area. Strongest winds are expected during overnight and early morning hours from nocturnal drainage flow. Sea heights will peak at around 7-8 ft. Strong to near gale force winds are expected Tue night through Thu night, with seas building up to 9-10 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Sun with sea heights building to 11 ft over the weekend. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient is forecast to develop across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea Fri night and Sat, resulting in gale force winds in the Gulf of Papagayo by early Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate N to NE winds prevail behind a cold front reaching from 30N120W to 26N130W to 27N140W. Long period NW swell follows this front with building seas to 14 ft north of 25N through Wed. The front will begin weakening tonight and dissipate over the forecast waters by Wed evening. Strong high pressure will build north of the area behind the cold front. The gradient between the strong high and developing low pressure north of Hawaii will support fresh to strong easterly winds from 10N to 17N W of 121W Wed night through Fri. Long period SW swell will cause combined seas to build to 8 ft S of 02N between 100W and 120W by Thu evening. $$ CAM