000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Feb 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The intertropical convergence zone extends from 05N84W to 04N120W to beyond 06N140W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are observed. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is approaching northern Baja California, with a second, reinforcing cold front following behind it. The first front will weaken and dissipate later today as it moves inland then into the northern Gulf of California. The reinforcing front will reach the northern Baja California and far northern Gulf of California late tonight, then weaken and dissipate as it moves into the central Gulf of California through Wed night and Thu. For the Gulf of California, strong SW winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the approaching cold fronts through tonight. High pressure will build over the Great Basin north of the area in the wake of the second front. This will induce strong NW winds in much of the central and southern Gulf by late Thu through Fri. Off the coast of Baja California, NW swell will subside today, but a new set of NW swell will enter the region, associated with the approaching cold fronts. Expect seas of 8 to 13 ft off Baja California Norte on Wed to subside to below 8 ft by Fri. Farther south, gentle NW flow and slight to moderate seas will persist over Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes through mid week. Looking ahead, strong gap winds will commence early Fri in Gulf of Tehuantepec, in response to high pressure building behind a cold front moving into southern Mexico. Gap winds may reach strong gale force by Fri night with downstream seas building to 17-19 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate pressure gradient in the western Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong NE winds. Strongest winds are expected during overnight and early morning hours from nocturnal drainage flow. Sea heights will peak at around 7-8 ft. Strong to near gale force winds are expected Tue night through Thu night, with seas building up to 9-10 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds will persist in the Gulf of Panama through Friday. Sea heights will peak at around 6-7 feet. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient is forecast to develop across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea Fri night and Sat, resulting in strong winds in the gulfs of Panama, Papagayo and Fonseca. Gale force winds are possible in Gulf of Papagayo early Sat, before sunrise. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Scatterometer data shows moderate northerly winds behind a cold front reaching from 30N118W to 24N131W. The front will weaken and eventually dissipate later today. Long period NW swell will follow this front, and another reinforcing front from 30N123W to 27N132W will build seas to 12-15 ft north of 25N through Wed. The reinforcing front will also weaken as it approaches 20N Wed. Strong high pressure will build north of the area behind the second reinforcing front. The gradient between the strong high and developing low pressure north of Hawaii will support fresh to strong easterly winds from 20N to 25N W of 135W from this afternoon through Wed. The ridge will also support fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 20N through early Fri. $$ Mundell