000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2155 UTC Mon Feb 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06.5N77W to 04.5N85W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 04.5N85W to 07N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered showers are noted from 15N to 20N between 115W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A stationary front reaching across the central Gulf of California through the northern portion of Baja California Sur into the adjacent offshore waters is dissipating this afternoon. A second cold front is approach the northern portion of Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island, with a third, reinforcing cold front following behind that. The first of these cold fronts will weaken and eventually dissipate as it moves across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California through late Tue. The reinforcing front will reach the northern portion of Baja California and the far northern Gulf of California by late Wed, then will weaken and dissipate as it moves into the central Gulf through late Wed into early Thu. For the Gulf of California, strong SW winds are possible over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the approaching cold front tonight through and Tue night, and again on Thu ahead of the reinforcing front. High pressure will build over the Great Basin north of the area in the wake of the second front. This will allow strong NW winds over much of the central and southern Gulf late Thu through Fri. Off the coast of Baja California, NW swell of 8 to 10 ft will subside through tonight, just as a new group of NW swell enters the region behind the approaching cold fronts. Expect seas of 8 to 13 ft off Baja California Norte Wed to subside as they move southward the remainder of the week to below 8 ft by Fri. Farther south, gentle flow and slight to moderate seas will persist over Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes through mid week. Looking ahead, strong gap winds will start early Fri in the Gulf of Tehuantepec in response to a cold front moving into southern Mexico off the western Gulf of Mexico. The gap winds may reach strong gale force by Fri night with downstream seas building to 19 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate surface pressure gradient in the western Caribbean is supporting a fresh to strong NE breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo. Strongest winds are expected during overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Sea heights should peak to around 7-8 ft. Strong to near gale force winds are expected Tue night through Thu night, with seas building up to 9-10 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will persist into the Gulf of Panama through Friday. Sea heights should peak to around 7-8 feet. Looking ahead, a tight pressure gradient is forecast to develop across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea Fri night into Sat morning resulting in strong winds across the gulfs of Panama, Papagayo and Fonseca. Gale force winds are possible in the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate northerly winds follow a cold front reaching from 30N122W to 27N140W. A recent altimeter pass indicated seas of 8 to 11 ft over much of the area north of 20N currently. The front will weaken and eventually dissipate through Tue as it moves near 20N through Tue. Long period northerly swell will follow this front and another reinforcing front still well to the north, bringing seas of 12 to 15 ft to the area north of 25N through Wed. The reinforcing front will weaken as it reaches 20N through mid week, similar to the first front. Strong high pressure will build north of the area in the wake of the second front. The combination of the building high and developing low pressure north of Hawaii will support fresh to strong easterly winds from 20N to 25N west of 135W Tue and Wed. The building ridge will also support fresh to locally strong trade winds from 10N to 20N mid to late week. $$ Christensen