000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041530
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1405 UTC Mon Feb 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 06N77W to 04N84W. The Intertropical 
Convergence Zone continues from 04N84W to 04N110W to 07N140W. 
Scattered showers are noted N of 07N between 118 to 136W. 


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW winds will briefly pulse 
over the far northern Gulf of California tonight as a low 
pressure crosses the area. Winds will increase again to 20 to 25 
kt through Tue ahead and behind a cold front moving across the 
northern portion of Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf 
of California. High pressure building north of the area in the 
wake of the front will support fresh to strong NW winds across 
the length of the Gulf of California Thu and Fri, with seas 
building to 8-9 ft in the southern Gulf of California by Thu 
night. At that time, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 
8 ft will also affect the waters between Las Marias Islands and 
Los Cabos, as well as the waters near Cabo Corrientes.

A weakening frontal boundary extends from a 1010 mb low pressure
over the northern Gulf of California to 25N116W to beyond 20N128W.
Gentle to moderate northerly winds are nored behind the front. 
Long-period NW swell in the wake of the front will bring wave 
heights of 8 to 13 feet to the waters off Baja California Norte 
today, before subsiding to 8 ft or less tonight. Expect wave 
heights of 8 to 10 feet off Baja California Sur through the 
Revillagigedo Islands today, subsiding on Tuesday. Another round 
of NW swell of 8 to 12 ft will follow a second cold front 
forecast to reach the waters off Baja California Norte tonight. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Looking ahead, a significant gap wind event
is expected across the Tehuantepec region on Fri. Currently, 
marine guidance suggests increasing winds of 30 to 40 kt, and 
building seas in the 10 to 14 ft range by Fri evening. Winds and 
seas are forecast by the computer model to further increase Fri 
night into Sat morning.

Farther south in Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate 
winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas will persist through mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate surface pressure gradient in the 
western Caribbean is supporting a fresh to strong NE breeze in 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Strongest winds are expected during 
overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the 
nocturnal drainage flow. Sea heights should peak to around 7-8  
ft. Strong to near gale force winds are expected Tue night 
through Thu night, with seas building up to 9-10 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will 
persist into the Gulf of Panama through Friday. Sea heights 
should peak to around 7-8 feet.

A tight pressure gradient is forecast to develop across the Gulf
of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea Fri night into Sat morning
resulting in strong winds across the gulfs of Panama, Papagayo 
and Fonseca. Gale force winds are possible in the Gulf of 
Papagayo.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through the
period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

As previously mentioned, a weakening frontal boundary extends 
from a 1010 mb low pressure over the northern Gulf of California 
to 25N116W to 20N127W to beyond 20N140W. Mainly moderate 
northerly winds follow the front with long period NW swell of 8 
to 14 ft. The front will dissipate today, and the swell will 
continue to propagate south to 15N but subside to 8-9 ft. 
The next cold front is reaching the northern forecast waters. 
Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to 
propagate across most of the forecast waters W of 120W through at
least Tue night behind this front. 

Looking ahead, the pressure gradient may start to tighten after 
mid week between high pressure off southern California and 
developing low pressure northeast of Hawaii. By the end of the 
week, this pattern will support fresh trade winds south of 20N 
and fresh SE winds west of 135W, maintaining 8 to 10 ft seas with
lingering NW swell.

$$

ERA