000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040337 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 336 UTC Mon Feb 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 07N77W to 03N90W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 03N90W to 09N135W to 07N140W. Scattered showers are from 07N to 15N west of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front will weaken through Mon as it moves across Baja California Sur and adjacent offshore waters, along with the central and southern portions of the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate northerly winds follow the front. Long period 8 to 13 ft NW swell also follows the front across the waters off Baja California today. The swell will subside to 8 ft or less as it moves farther south into the Revillagigedo Islands through late Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds will briefly pulse over the far northern Gulf of California Tue and Tue night ahead of a second front approaching the northern portion of Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island by late Tue into early Wed. The front will dissipate through late Wed as it moves through the region. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong NW winds across the length of the Gulf of California Thu and Fri, with seas building to 8 ft in the southern Gulf of California. Another round of NW swell of 8 to 12 ft will follow the second front across the waters off Baja California Wed through Thu, subsiding to less than 8 ft Fri. Farther south in Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas will persist through mid week. Looking ahead, strong gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, possibly reaching gale force late Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate surface pressure gradient in the western Caribbean Sea is supporting a fresh to strong NE breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo. Strongest winds are expected during overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. The sea heights should peak around 7 feet to 8 feet. Strong to near gale force winds are expected Tue night through Wed night with seas building up to 9 or 10 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will persist into the Gulf of Panama through Friday. The sea heights should peak around 7 feet to 8 feet. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes will persist through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 27N114W to 19N130W then stationary to 21N140W. Mainly moderate northerly winds follow the front with long period NW swell of 8 to 14 ft. The front will dissipate through Mon, and the swell will continue to propagate south to 15N but subside to 8 to 9 ft. Another cold front will move through the waters east of 125W through early Tue. Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the most of forecast waters W of 120W through at least Tue night behind this front. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient may start to tighten after mid week between high pressure off southern California and developing low pressure northeast of Hawaii. By late week, this pattern may support fresh trade winds south of 20N and fresh SE winds west of 135W, maintaining 8 to 10 ft seas with lingering NW swell. $$ Christensen