000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Feb 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N77W to 03N84W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 03N84W to 02N110W to 06N128W to 08N140W. Scattered showers are from 07N to 18N west of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to move across the Gulf of California and Baja California Norte as well as the NE forecast waters. The front extends along 32N113W to 29N114W to 22N122W to 19N129W where it becomes stationary and continues to 20N140W. Isolated showers are ahead of the front across central and southern Baja, extending to the offshores. A weak ridge over the open forecast waters support light to gentle NW flow N of the front and over the Baja California Norte offshores, and variable winds of the same magnitude ahead of the front. Over the northern Gulf of California, a tighter pressure gradient against higher pressure along the Sierra Madre Occidental supports fresh to strong SW winds N of 30N. These winds will diminish early in the afternoon today, however will briefly resume early on Mon as a second cold front moves across the gulf and Baja. A third reinforcing cold front will move across the region early on Tue and will support fresh to strong SW winds N of 30N continuing into Wed afternoon. West of Baja California Peninsula, long-period NW swell following the fronts will support wave heights of 8 to 12 feet reaching the Revillagigedo Islands through late Thu. The highest seas of 11-12 ft are expected for the offshores of Baja California Norte. These seas will gradually subside towards southern Baja. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate surface pressure gradient in the western Caribbean Sea is supporting a fresh to strong NE breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo. Strongest winds are expected during overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. The sea heights should peak around 7 feet to 8 feet. Strong to near gale force winds are expected Tue night through Wed night with seas building up to 9 or 10 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will persist into the Gulf of Panama through Friday. The sea heights should peak around 7 feet to 8 feet. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 32N113W to 29N114W to 22N122W to 19N129W where it becomes stationary and continues to 20N140W. Mainly moderate northerly winds follow the front with long period NW swell. This swell event is raising seas to 8 to 15 ft and will continue to propagate across the north waters through Mon. Swell in excess of 8 ft will dominate the region north of 15N W of 110W by late Mon. Another cold front will move through the waters north of 25N on Mon, followed by a reinforcing cold front on Tue. Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters W of 120W through at least Tue night. The progression of cold fronts across the waters north of 25N will suppress the development of a subtropical ridge, resulting in moderate trade wind flow farther south into the tropics. $$ NR