000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030922 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 612 UTC Sun Feb 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N74W to 06N87W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 06N87W to 02N112W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 126W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across northern Baja California and the NE forecast waters. As of 0600 UTC, the front extends 30N116W to 23N124W to 20N130W where it becomes stationary to 20N140W. The front is now producing some shower activity over northern Baja California N of 30N, and the far north Gulf of California. Winds have diminished to 10-15 kt on either side of the front based on recent scatterometer data. The front will move slowly to the southeast along the Baja California coast and into the central Gulf of California through late Sunday. Long-period NW swell follows the front, bringing wave heights of 9 to 13 feet to the waters off Baja California Norte by Sunday night, before subsiding to 8 ft or less on Monday night. Expect wave heights of 8 to 10 feet off Baja California Sur through the Revillagigedo Islands through Monday, subsiding on Tuesday. Looking ahead, another cold front accompanied by another round of NW swell, will reach Guadalupe Island and northern Baja California on Tue. Expect building seas in the 8-12 ft range off Baja California Norte Tue night and Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate surface pressure gradient in the western Caribbean Sea is supporting a fresh to strong NE breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo. Strongest winds are expected during overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. The sea heights should peak around 7 feet to 8 feet. Strong to near gale force winds are expected Tue night through Wed night with seas building up to 9 or 10 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will persist into the Gulf of Panama each night through Tuesday, possibly strengthening to strong breeze Tue night, and again Wed night. The sea heights should peak around 7 feet to 8 feet. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a cold front extends 30N116W to 23N124W to 20N130W where it becomes stationary to 20N140W. Mainly moderate northerly winds follow the front, with a new set of long period NW swell. This swell event is raising seas to 8 to 12 ft based on the most recent altimeter data, and will continue to propagate across the north waters through Mon. Swell in excess of 8 ft will dominate the region north of 15N W of 110W by late Mon. Another cold front will move through the waters north of 25N on Mon, followed by a reinforcing cold front on Tue. Additional pulses of long period NW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters W of 120W through at least Tue night. The progression of cold fronts across the waters north of 25N will suppress the development of a subtropical ridge, resulting in moderate trade wind flow farther south into the tropics. $$ GR