000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030128
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
315 UTC Sun Feb 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough reaches from 07N78W to 06N90W. The intertropical 
convergence zone continues from 06N90W to 03N110W to 06N130W to  
05N140W. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
observed.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

A recent scatterometer pass showed strong to near-gale force 
southerly winds over the waters off Baja California Norte ahead 
of a cold front that is approaching from the west. Meanwhile 
Yuma, Arizona is reporting strong southerly flow, indicative of 
strong southerly winds over the far northern portion of the Gulf 
of California. The strong winds will diminish rapidly tonight 
night across the region as the front moves slowly to the 
southeast along the Baja California coast and into the central 
Gulf of California through late Sunday. Long- period NW swell 
will follow the front, bringing wave heights of 8 to 12 feet to 
the waters off Baja California Norte Sunday, before subsiding to 
less than 8 feet on Monday night. Expect wave heights of 8 to 10 
feet off Baja California Sur through the Revillagigedo Islands 
through Monday, subsiding on Tuesday. Looking ahead, another cold
front accompanied by another round of NW swell, will reach 
Guadalupe Island and northern Baja California by mid-week. A weak
pressure pattern and slight seas will return across the Mexican 
offshore waters, elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate surface pressure gradient in the 
western Caribbean Sea is supporting a fresh to strong NE breeze 
in the Gulf of Papagayo. Strongest winds are expected during 
overnight and early morning hours through Wednesday. The sea 
heights should peak around 7 feet to 8 feet.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh N to NE winds will persist into the Gulf 
of Panama each night through Tuesday, possibly strengthening to 
strong breeze on Wednesday. The sea heights should peak around 6 
feet to 7 feet.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front reaches from 30N120W to 20N140W. Mostly moderate W
to NW winds follow the front. Long-period NW swell is also 
following the front, bringing 8 to 13 ft seas across the region 
to the west of the front through tonight, with reinforcing 12 to 
15 ft swell reaching as far south as 25N E of 135W from late 
tonight until late Sun. Swell in excess of 8 ft will dominate the
region north of 20N into Mon, then subside Mon night. Another 
front will move through the waters north of 25N early next week 
will not bring much wind but will reinforce NW swell in excess of
8 ft.

The progression of cold fronts across the waters north of 25N 
will suppress the development of a subtropical ridge, resulting 
in moderate trade wind flow farther south into the tropics. 

$$
Christensen