000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021703 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Feb 2 2019 CORRECTED FOR SPECIAL FEATURE/START OF GALE-FORCE WINDS Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1452 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning off northern Baja California Norte: Southerly winds ahead of a cold front will increase today, reaching minimal gale force briefly this afternoon, north of Ensenada to 60 nm offshore. The wind speeds will diminish rapidly and shift to the NW as the cold front moves through the area. This limited duration will not allow the seas to build appreciably due to the gale force winds. The gale-force winds are forecast to occur in the Offshore Waters area, but not in the area that is covered by the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFEP2. Long-period NW swell of 8 to 10 feet will follow tonight into this area, building the sea heights to 12 to 13 feet by late Sunday. The swell will subside significantly through Monday, to less than 8 feet by Monday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial surface trough passes through the coastal areas of Colombia near 04N77W to 03N79W, to 07N84W and 06N89W. The ITCZ continues from 06N89W to 03N102W 06N120W, and 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 132W and 137W, and within 90 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 125W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern is in place across the region supporting light breezes and low seas. The pattern changes significantly this morning, ahead of a cold front that is approaching from the west. Southerly winds will increase mainly off Baja California Norte and the far northern Gulf of California, reaching gale force off the Baja California Norte coast, north of Ensenada. The strong winds will diminsh rapidly tonight night across the region, as the front moves slowly to the southeast along the Baja California coast and into the central Gulf of California through late Sunday. Long-period NW swell will follow the front, bringing wave heights of 8 to 12 feet to the waters off Baja California Norte on Sunday, before subsiding to less than 8 feet on Monday night. Expect wave heights of 8 to 10 feet off Baja California Sur through the Revillagigedo Islands through Monday, subsiding on Tuesday. Looking ahead: another cold front, accompanied by another round of NW swell, will reach Guadalupe Island and northern Baja California by mid-week. A weak pressure pattern and slight seas will return across the Mexican offshore waters, elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate surface pressure gradient in the western Caribbean Sea is supporting a fresh to strong NE breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo. Strongest winds are expected during overnight and early morning hours through Wednesday. The sea heights should peak around 7 feet to 8 feet. Gulf of Panama: Fresh N to NE winds will persist into the Gulf of Panama each night through Tuesday, possibly strengthening to strong breeze on Wednesday. The sea heights should peak around 6 feet to 7 feet. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaches from deep low pressure centered north of the area. Scatterometer data shows strong to near gale-force winds within 180 nm ahead of the front north of 25N. Strongest winds are just less than gale force. These winds will diminsh gradually today, as the front moves eastward and the low moves northeast. Fresh to strong W to NW winds behind the front north of 28N will continue to diminish today. Long-period NW swell will follow the front, bringing 8 to 13 ft seas across the region to the west of the front through tonight, with reinforcing 12 to 15 ft swell reaching as far south as 25N E of 135W from late tonight until late Sun. Swell in excess of 8 ft will dominate the region north of 20N into Mon, then subside Mon night. Another front will move through the waters north of 25N early next week, not bringing much wind, but reinforcing NW swell in excess of 8 ft will accompany the front. The progression of cold fronts across the waters north of 25N will suppress the development of a subtropical ridge, resulting in moderate trade wind flow farther south into the tropics. $$ mt