000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020926 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Feb 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning off northern Baja California Norte: Southerly winds ahead of a cold front will increase today, reaching minimal gale force briefly this evening, north of Ensenada to 60 nm offshore. Winds will diminish rapidly and shift to the NW as the front moves through the area. This limited duration will not allow seas to build appreciably due to the gale force winds. However, long-period NW swell of 8 to 10 ft will follow tonight into this area, building seas to 12-13 ft by late Sun. The swell will subside significantly through Mon to below 8 ft by Mon night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N93W to 03N107W to 08N140W. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern is in place across the region supporting light breezes and slight seas. The pattern changes significantly this morning ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Southerly winds will increase mainly off Baja California Norte and the far northerly Gulf of California, reaching gale force off the Baja California Norte coast, north of Ensenada. The strong winds will rapidly diminish tonight night across the region as the front moves slowly to the southeast along the Baja California coast and into the central Gulf of California through late Sun. Long-period NW swell will follow the front, bringing wave heights of 8 to 12 ft to the waters off Baja California Norte on Sun, before subsiding to below 8 ft Mon night. Expect wave heights of 8 to 10 ft off Baja California Sur through the Revillagigedo Islands through Mon, subsiding Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front accompanied by another round of NW swell will reach Guadalupe Island and northern Baja California by mid-week. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern and slight seas will return across Mexican offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate surface pressure gradient over the western Caribbean Sea is supporting a fresh to strong NE breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo. Strongest winds are expected during overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Seas should peak around 7-8 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh N to NE winds will persist into the Gulf of Panama each night through Tue, possibly strengthening to strong breeze on Wed. Seas should peak around 6-7 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaches from deep low pressure centered north of the area. Scatterometer data shows strong to near gale-force winds within 180 nm ahead of the front north of 25N. Strongest winds are just below gale force. These winds will gradually diminish this morning as the front moves east and the low lifts northeast. fresh to strong W to NW winds behind the front north of 28N will continue to diminish today. Long-period NW swell will follow the front, bringing 8 to 13 ft seas over the region west of the front through tonight, with reinforcing 12 to 15 ft swell reaching as far south as 25N E of 135W from late tonight until late Sun. Swell in excess of 8 ft will dominate the region north of 20N into Mon, then subside Mon night. Another front will move through the waters north of 25N early next week, not bringing much wind, but reinforcing NW swell in excess of 8 ft will accompany the front. The progression of cold fronts across the waters north of 25N will suppress the development of a subtropical ridge, resulting in moderate trade wind flow farther south into the tropics. $$ Mundell