000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020324 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 324 UTC Sat Feb 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning off northern Baja California Norte: Southerly winds ahead of a cold front will increase through Sat, reaching minimal gale force briefly late Sat off the northern portion of Baja California North, north of Ensenada out to 60 nm offshore. The winds will diminish rapidly and shift to the NW as the front moves through the area. This limited duration will not allow seas to build appreciably due to the gale force winds. However long- period NW swell of 8 to 10 ft will follow Sat night into this area, building to 13 ft by late Sun. The swell will subside significantly through Mon to below 8 ft by Mon night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 03N100W. The ITCZ extends from 03N100W to 08N140W. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is observed. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern is in place across the region currently, supporting light breezes and slight seas. The pattern will change overnight ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Southerly winds will increase Sat mainly off Baja California Norte and the far northerly Gulf of California, reaching gale force off the Baja California Norte coast north of Ensenada. The stronger winds will rapidly diminish through late Sat and Sat night across the region as the front moves slowly to the southeast along the Baja California coast and the central Gulf of California through late Sun, before dissipating early next week. Long-period NW swell will follow the front, bringing wave heights of 8 to 12 ft to the waters off Baja California Norte Sun, subsiding to below 8 ft by Mon night. Expect wave heights of 8 to 10 ft off Baja California Sur through the Revillagigedo Islands through Mon, subsiding into Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front accompanied by another round of NW swell will reach Guadalupe Island and the northern portion of Baja California Norte by mid week. Elsewhere, the weak pressure pattern and slight seas will return across Mexican offshore waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: A moderate surface pressure gradient over the western Caribbean Sea is supporting fresh to strong breeze NE winds are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Seas should peak around 8 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh N to NE winds will persist into the Gulf of Panama each night through Tue, possibly strengthening to strong breeze on Wed. Seas should peak around 8 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaches from deep 987 mb low pressure centered north of the area near 34N130W to 30N130W to 24.5N140W. Strong to near gale-force winds are noted within 180 nm ahead of the front north of 25N. Recent scatterometer returns indicate the strongest of these winds are just below gale force. These winds will gradually diminish through tonight as the front moves east and the low pressure area lifts northeast. Similarly strong W to NW winds behind the front north of 28N will diminish overnight. Long- period NW swell will follow the front, bringing 8 to 13 ft seas over the region west of the front through late Sat, with reinforcing 12 to 15 ft swell reaching as far south as 25N east of 135W late Sat through late Sun. Swell in excess of 8 ft will dominate the region north of 20N into Mon, but subside to less than 12 ft. Another front will move through the waters north of 25N early next week. This will not bring much wind, but will be accompanied by reinforcing NW swell in excess of 8 ft. The progression of cold fronts across the waters north of 25N will suppress the development of the subtropical ridge, resulting in generally moderate trade wind flow farther south into the tropics. $$ Christensen